JC Political Thread - For All Things Political Part 2

[chrisp]

Why would it be a failure of the local planning department that a private company is withholding land? Not 100% sure on local bylaws but I’d find it highly unlikely that local councils can enforce a “use it or lose it” provision on AV Jennings and if they did AV Jennings would sue local councils in court to stop it. Hardly something a cash strapped local council would want to be going to court for.

I believe the recent ‘land tax‘ changes in Victoria will be hitting land that remains undeveloped after a year or so. It won’t stop the ‘land banking’, but at least the state government will be clawing back a bit of their profits if they do so.

On a similar topic, I read a story today that the new land taxes seem to be driving some property investors to sell up in Victoria. Apparently the number of investment properties on the market in Victoria has increased. The story had the usual comments that the renters will have less houses to choose from, like the houses will somehow disappear. ha ha!

It is early days, but keep an eye on what happens here in Victoria over the next year or two to see if it improves the housing situation or not.

 

[shane_3800]

Well the Mr Fluffy thing wasn’t really an eminent domain issue, so maybe the consideration was different?

In any case it’s poor form for governments to offer less than the market value for eminent domain acquisitions although I’m sure it does happen.

The government was buying back the houses, you had the option to keep the property but you had to cover the clean up costs or something like that.
Most got sold to developers and about 90% I've seen ended up being duplicated blocks, so the developer made twice the money then the poor person that got stuck in the situation.

 

[hademall]

Do you have proof of these claims?

Noooooooo! It's all been said before!

 

[Sabbath']

How do you know that? Surely a company that was in the business of clearing as many lots as possible would have sufficient tradies to clear more than 10% of their lots in the space of a year.

279 homes in a financial year is 5 houses being completed every week of the year.

1460 homes with work in progress also means they have a continual rolling supply of housing that will go from in progress to completed.

That's a lot of sites to cycle trades and materials through. And the speed in which those trades can get themselves and materials to site is something not in AV Jennings control.

Or are they not in any particular rush to clear the lots because land values go up far faster than inflation or interest rates?

In my job the value of my goods doesn’t go up by 10% every year and if it did my companies management wouldn’t put pressure on us to reduce stock holdings and clear stock out as fast as possible.

If you know you’re going to get 10% more for it next year why would you rush to sell it. And before you @ me the 10% is an example but the fact remains that house/land prices go up way faster than inflation or interest rates, so there is hardly a compelling imperative to move it.

I'm sure thinking along these lines works for you as it fits your narrative but the reality of the building industry is far different.

I did say I would exclude the un-permitted ones to be generous but even then it doesnt look too crash hot. If I only cleared out 10% of my stock in a year my boss would be handing me a DCM!

I'm sure your targets are different to theirs. We could bulk import people and add to the number of people needing homes and also potentially rush the build process and lower the quality within the industry. Think 457 visas and the transport industry for an example.

 

[J_D 2.0]

I'm sure thinking along these lines works for you as it fits your narrative but the reality of the building industry is far different.

It’s not “thinking along these lines”, it’s economic reality.

Is the Louvre keen to clear out its art works at rock bottom prices because the value of them are going down every year or are they happy to sit on them?

Is someone with a mint VF2 Motorsport keen to clear it out or are they going to hang onto it because it’s an investment and will become worth more in the future?

The exact same thinking infects the building industry, they aren’t in a hurry to move or make anything because it’s all an “investment”.

I copped that same BS newspeak when I got my carport put in, apparently it wasn’t “costing” me over $10k, it was an “investment” into the value of my home!

It’s really only the property industry that gets to lean on this “investment” mantra to increase the value/cost of everything.

Sometimes it happens with limited edition stuff like Air Jordan shoes, etc where people queue for hours to get a pair because they are only making 100 pairs or something.

And we have turned the whole property market into that, not an economic imperative that must be done (you know, for shelter) but a rarified commodity where people should be grateful for the opportunity to “invest” in it, regardless of the cost!

I'm sure your targets are different to theirs.

I’m sure they are but the point still stands. If my stock was basically guaranteed to go up in value by twice the rate of inflation ad infinitum management wouldn’t be pushing for it to be sold.

They might want enough cleared to meet their costs plus a bit more but they certainly wouldn’t have a push on to move as much as possible when they are basically guaranteed to make even more money in following years for that same product that’s sitting on the shelf unused!

We could bulk import people and add to the number of people needing homes and also potentially rush the build process and lower the quality within the industry. Think 457 visas and the transport industry for an example.

Yes, I pointed out earlier that we should be doing that (importing workers) in the interim to get on top of the current shortage. They will build more houses than they occupy so it’s a net win on the housing supply front.

Government should also be providing more resources to TAFE and technical colleges to train the next generation of tradies, which I think the current government is doing but it’s going to take a long time to turn that ship around.

 

[the_boozer]

279 homes in a financial year is 5 houses being completed every week of the year.

How many of them are good buildings that will still be there in 50 years? How many of them are concrete slabs in flood zones that will flood.

 

[J_D 2.0]

How many of them are good buildings that will still be there in 50 years? How many of them are concrete slabs in flood zones that will flood.

Companies have an imperative to make the most profit possible, so buying marginal land in flood zones or under HV power lines, etc is in their best interests as the land price is cheaper! Yay capitalism!

 

[the_boozer]

What ever any of you do .don't ever bother to look here its got the lot mentioned above.
When the concrete slab cracks or sinks 10 years later what happens then?

 

[J_D 2.0]

What ever any of you do .don't ever bother to look here its got the lot mentioned above.
When the concrete slab cracks or sinks 10 years later what happens then?

Sometimes it’s not even ten years later. Ex brother in law rented a new build many years ago and the slab had decent size cracks in it 12 months after it was built. Luckily it was only a rental so not his problem.

 

[Immortality]

Mr26 just rented a house somewhere in Brisbane. Apparently the house itself isn't in a flood zone but it's surrounded by flood zones so his feet will be dry but he won't be able to go anywhere....

But same scenario, not his problem. He'll only be there until he buys his own place.