Ford to Keep the I6 Beyond 2010?

[minux]

Bravo Shounak, basically I was as you suggested motivated by a gut feeling and I do respect the information you have provided.
However, as it appears most or all of your stats are obsolete, you may have to get back up to speed and stop relying on pre-historic information.
Now when you have some up to date material, try again.

So when will we see your up to date information, if ever?

At least he posted his up.

[Skitz]

So when will we see your up to date information, if ever?

At least he posted his up.

No your right, he has done well.
I'm not an expert on the subject and have not done months of research on the topic as Shounak has.
I will make a judgement if and when Shounak updates his ancient articles from last years uni assignment.

[Shounak]

Bravo Shounak, basically I was as you suggested motivated by a gut feeling and I do respect the information you have provided.
However, as it appears most or all of your stats are obsolete, you may have to get back up to speed and stop relying on pre-historic information.
Now when you have some up to date material, try again.

No your right, he has done well.
I'm not an expert on the subject and have not done months of research on the topic as Sounak has.
I will make a judgement if and when Shounak updates his ancient articles from last years uni assignment.

They're this years articles and the statistics are mostly 2008, some 2007.

Instead of mouthing off complete ignorance based on gut feeling, why not do a bit of research and come back. You're in way over your head, demanding upto date statistics which don't even exist based on a gut feeling.

If you've ever worked with statistics (as I have), you'll know that stats are never upto date. That's the whole thing about forecasting and regression analysis.

If you want to be slightly knowledgable, read the Bracks report. It's a very concise and well written piece that covers everything in great detail. Then you might actually have an opinion worth listening to.

[Shounak]

Keep in mind Shounak, that all those facts you posted are not current.

Mazda are down 24% since your facts were written, and ford up 4.4%. Thats a massive swing and really it negates most of your argument.

If you could get some CURRENT facts and figures regarding private sales between Ford and Mazda that would be relevant. Say October or November from vFacts or something. The swing over 08 has been the opposite since your information was written.

Also keep in mind where we are headed. Are people still going to want tiny cars when economy is no longer such an issue? Once most new cars are either Hybrids or Hydrogen or Electric powered vehicles, are people still going to love the little cars over the more practical family sedan?

Mazda trumping Ford in private sales is not the point I'm making. It's simply indicative of something greater.

The change in consumer preferences are what really matters. People aren't buying Aussie 6's anymore. Mazda can very easily stay afloat without millions being pumped into it, whereas Ford is on life support.

The key to getting off the support is shifting production decisions to be inline with what the consumers want.

Like I said before, whilst you may be salivating over a big Aussie 6, most consumers are not. Those with $35,000 are shifting into medium sized cars, to the detriment of Ford/Holden.

And people are going to want more European luxury cars once the economy gets better. They certainly won't want more Falcodores. Of course like anything, Falcodore sales will rise but not as much as what most consumers prefer.

Families are also shifting to SUV's (urbane 4wd's) rather than Falcodores and these consume more petrol. The shift in preferences is negatively correlated to fuel prices almost. Basically, the difference between a Commodore and a Camry for most in minute. Most families would rather go a Kluger. It's much more practical and I'll bet it'll go green sometime soon.

Basically, the big Aussie 6 has no future. I think 60% of cars are exported (top of my head) and demand for the 6 is drying up overseas. Not to mention domestic demand drying up also.

Why produce something no-one wants just because a coterie of car lovers think it's the ducks nuts?

[calais_cruzin]

Most ppl with the money to buy new cars just got a bit freaked out when petrol was starting to go up, its now goin down with really cheap price's in the comin months as new refineries are gettin finished off n supply is high compared to when the big price rise went thru when those hurricane's that hit the US n cut the supply drastically .

Once fuel is cheaper ppl will buy the larger cars again due to convenience of being able to load the car up with soo much more than there fuel savin mazda3

Everythink comes down to the price of fuel, if fuel is cheap ppl will drive a bigger car that use's a lil bit more as they can carry more.

Not really much to do with the I6 really but it does, coz if more demand for em the less chance we got of loosing our aussie 6's

[1991_Vn2nV]

Mazda trumping Ford in private sales is not the point I'm making. It's simply indicative of something greater.

No but it is a point you made, and on CURRENT statistics you will find its incorrect. On your statistics from last year it is a different story, but as stated there has since been a 24% drop in sales from Mazda and a 4.4% increase in Fords sales.

The change in consumer preferences are what really matters. People aren't buying Aussie 6's anymore. Mazda can very easily stay afloat without millions being pumped into it, whereas Ford is on life support.

People aren't buying Aussie 6's anymore? Last I checked the Commodore was still the most popular car of 2008. The Falcon is also outselling the vast majority of other models. Model vs. Model the Falcon and Commodore are still selling quite well compared to their competition.

The key to getting off the support is shifting production decisions to be inline with what the consumers want.

No the key to getting off life support is getting the parent companies acts cleaned up.

The falcon should be able to be built in LHD configuration and it should exported to the world as the Commodore is. It won't get huge sales, but enough to keep it in the clear.

Like I said before, whilst you may be salivating over a big Aussie 6, most consumers are not. Those with $35,000 are shifting into medium sized cars, to the detriment of Ford/Holden.

And people are going to want more European luxury cars once the economy gets better. They certainly won't want more Falcodores. Of course like anything, Falcodore sales will rise but not as much as what most consumers prefer.

There aren't many Euro cars in the $35,000 segment.

As for the higher classes, HSV are selling in record numbers, as other SS/SS-V and Calais-V models. So what statistics do you have to backup this comment?

Basically, the big Aussie 6 has no future. I think 60% of cars are exported (top of my head) and demand for the 6 is drying up overseas. Not to mention domestic demand drying up also.

lol I think you should look up export numbers for the Falcon instead of going off the top of your head because @ 60% you are a long way off mate.



General comments on your post...
If nobody wants an aussie 6, then why are their sales up 4.4% and Mazda's down 24% on the latest available statistics?

Your argument does not match current statistics. Look at the LATEST statistics from vfacts. Seeing as you have studied stats, you should know that you should be using the most up to date statistics available, when instead your using stats that are the reverse of what is currenty on offer.

You say the big aussie six has no future but lets look at the one large sedan on offer in Australia with a 4 cylinder and V6 option. The Camry and Aurion. The Aurion V6 outsells the Camry in the private sector, its only due to fleet sales that the Camry sells more cars. In large sedans, 4 cylinder engines are not really an option as they are not practical for towing or for pulling around a 1.7/1.8 tonne vehicle.

[Skitz]

I think 1991 Vn2nV has had the last word on this as his information is correct.

Shounak, this is Australia mate.If you think us aussies are going to let european sh#t wipe out Commodore/Falcon altogether you are sadly mistaken.
The 6 does have a future here, so does the 8.I've seen people tear you a new one on numerous subjects and it's heading that way again.
Time to admit defeat and take stock, think about what you have done and think again before taking your superior line with faulty facts.

[Tsunamix]

For the record, FWD has better economics over RWD.

Packaging - engine/gearbox/transfer case all in one block, fitted more rapidly, assembled more rapidly, and can be a structural assembly.

Design - structural integrity can be better due to integrateing gearbox members and transfer case members into the engine block. This leads to less weight. Less mounting point requirements due to smaller physical packaging and lower weight.

Lower weight leads to increases in fuel economy (think reduced capacity and outputs required for the same performance), and therefore reduced emissions per km.

Less cost per assembly leads to more available funds per assembly to spent on technology and R & D, which leads to reductions in emissions and possibly increased outputs.

There a less energy transmission losses in a front wheel drive layout - no long prop shafts, no mid prop shaft bearings.

There are greater synergy's in a front wheel drive layout - no duplicated engine / transmission coolers, no seperate sumps, no seperate filtration - (obviously this is not in all cases but it can be done - and has).

Of course - all this utterly stuffs a cars dynamics, and it not costs a mint if you break something as its all engine out work, and in an accident you can do a whole lot more damage to the drivetrain.

Servicing costs more as it's usually more difficult to access components in the drivetrain.

In my opinion - FWD is false economy and false emissions improvements. Deteriorating dynamics due to FWD layout costs more in Tyre wear, accident and service damage, for a small improvement in emissions reductions at assembly and during vehicle life. These savings are probably offset by the increase in reductions caused by more elctricity consumed during service, maintenance and manufacture of running cost items- like tyres.

You may generate 5% more emissions makeing the power and tyres and stuff. FWD platforms are generally only in the order of 5% better in emissions. BUT THESE MEANS THEY PASS THE STUPID DESIGN EMISSIONS TESTS.

[minux]

Shounak,

just a quote, i do not claim this info to be my own, so easier to paste it then to dissect someone elses report

In the clearest sign yet that consumer confidence has taken a dive, total new car sales for November are down 22 percent on the same period last year.

In figures released today by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (VFACTS figures), sales for November totalled 71,647 vehicles, down 20,434 vehicles against sales for November last year. These sales represent a 9.8 percent fall from October sales. Year to date sales, however, are down just 2.9 percent - largely thanks to a strong first three quarters. This year, a total of 935,684 new vehicles have exited showrooms.

Toyota again took the market lead, followed by Holden and Ford. There is daylight between number one and two spots, with Toyota leading Holden by a margin of 100,464 vehicle sales.

Biggest loser among the vehicle segments, unsurprisingly, was the SUV market, which fell 28.1 percent, followed by the heavy commercial vehicle market, a 25 percent fall, and the passenger car market, down 20.5 percent.

The upper market segments have been particularly hardest hit by declining sales. Upper large car sales are down 63 percent for November, down 40.1 percent YTD, and Luxury SUVs are down 40.2 percent for November, down 7.2 percent for the year.

These results make ‘monkeys’ of the Federal Government’s tax revenue projections when introducing the luxury car tax.

Had to bold the last part, so true.

[Skitz]

Shounak,

just a quote, i do not claim this info to be my own, so easier to paste it then to dissect someone elses report



Had to bold the last part, so true.

Suprise suprise.

[Shounak]

General comments on your post...
If nobody wants an aussie 6, then why are their sales up 4.4% and Mazda's down 24% on the latest available statistics?

Your argument does not match current statistics. Look at the LATEST statistics from vfacts. Seeing as you have studied stats, you should know that you should be using the most up to date statistics available, when instead your using stats that are the reverse of what is currenty on offer.

You say the big aussie six has no future but lets look at the one large sedan on offer in Australia with a 4 cylinder and V6 option. The Camry and Aurion. The Aurion V6 outsells the Camry in the private sector, its only due to fleet sales that the Camry sells more cars. In large sedans, 4 cylinder engines are not really an option as they are not practical for towing or for pulling around a 1.7/1.8 tonne vehicle.

For one, there has been a marked change in consumer preferences. Which was truly manifesting itself in stronger economic times.

At present, Holden and Ford have received huge bailouts and are heavily discounting their products. That itself would create a certain anomaly, selling at unsustainable prices, but I don't think that's what has caused this differential in sales.

I think much of your statistic has to do with fleet purchases. A few months after the financial year is when a lot of fleet purchases are made, which make up 75% of Falcodore sales. I'm willing to accept that fleet purchases will remain relatively stable, however it's the change in consumer prefrences I'm interested in.

Any spike Ford may see in sales about this time will not be met be an equiproportionate spike by Mazda due to the strong fleet sales.

Minux' vfacts does not suprise me one little bit. When private sales go down and fleet sales go down (but not as much), obviously the ones most affected would be those who sell predominantly to private buyers.

If Ford sales are really up by 4.4%, I'd love to see the stat when you isolate the purchasers.All of the Euro sellers are down by 30-45%, it's simply a sign that consumer discretionary spending is tightening.

I can pretty much guarantee that once the economy picks up again, people will swing right back into the luxury Euro's, step up their general private vehicle purchases and their money will be distributed in line with their true preferences. Which of course includes Falcodores, but the trend is moving away from them. Now is the worst time to extrapolate future trends based on the period of highest uncertainty in the last 10 years.

[Shounak]

No the key to getting off life support is getting the parent companies acts cleaned up.

The falcon should be able to be built in LHD configuration and it should exported to the world as the Commodore is. It won't get huge sales, but enough to keep it in the clear.

The Commodore export is slowing down and the export market is faced with a great number of threats. It's a hugely uncertain move. Amongst other things, Toyota are looking to set up in the Middle East, which will be a killer. Not to mention the threat from China.

There aren't many Euro cars in the $35,000 segment.

As for the higher classes, HSV are selling in record numbers, as other SS/SS-V and Calais-V models. So what statistics do you have to backup this comment?

I put the V8's in a different category as they're a niche market.

But a very simple stat. Market share for Aussie manufacturers has fallen from 30% in 2002 to 19% in 2007. Massive amount. People aren't buying as many Aussie made cars.

lol I think you should look up export numbers for the Falcon instead of going off the top of your head because @ 60% you are a long way off mate.

Wasn't talking about the Falcon. Was talking about Aussie produced cars. I'll have another check through the Bracks report later. But it's around the 50% mark. Not sure what though.

At the end of the day, market share for Aussie car makers are declining. Export sales are also dropping. It's all about producing a car that people will want and buy.

Australia doesn't have the economies of scale to make a cheap car, so it has to get it's export competitiveness in a different way. If the Middle East will continue to buy heaps of Aussie cars and fleet sales will increase. Then great.

But both of these are decreasing. Sure, other manufacturers who don't have as many fleet sales have decreased more in this period of uncertainty, but the fundamental consumer preferences remain the same and I'm sure things will bounce back to their 2007 state once everything recovers.

[Shounak]

I think 1991 Vn2nV has had the last word on this as his information is correct.

Shounak, this is Australia mate.If you think us aussies are going to let european sh#t wipe out Commodore/Falcon altogether you are sadly mistaken.
The 6 does have a future here, so does the 8.I've seen people tear you a new one on numerous subjects and it's heading that way again.
Time to admit defeat and take stock, think about what you have done and think again before taking your superior line with faulty facts.

Why post here if all you're going to do is sit there and bob your head in ignorance?

Aussie govt and businesses are beginning to purchase non-Aussie stuff for their fleets also.

Here's another quote.

Ten years ago, large cars cornered 37 per cent of the car market and 217,000 were bought. With the
exception of a small blip up in 2003, large cars' share of the action has been in relentless decline.
They now account for just 22 per cent of car purchases.
People are certainly downsizing, with the two smallest car categories attracting 57 per cent of
buyers against 43 per cent in 1998. But there's more to the story than that; and it's not just that
small cars these days are larger, although they are.
The most revealing trend emerges from total vehicle numbers. Here, the large car share has shrunk
virtually every year, from 27 per cent a decade ago to just 13 per cent last year.

Making 10 year comparisons is much more valid to see a general trend than comparing the strong Economic times of 2007 with the downturn of 2008.

[1991_Vn2nV]

The Commodore export is slowing down and the export market is faced with a great number of threats. It's a hugely uncertain move. Amongst other things, Toyota are looking to set up in the Middle East, which will be a killer. Not to mention the threat from China.

They don't have to sell in record numbers, just enough to keep production up. Look at the large RWD sedans Ford offer in the USA and various other parts of the world... The FG is very reasonable in comparison.

The Commodore exports aren't slowing down everywhere, its mostly the exports to the USA that are really floundering at the moment but thats because GM flood the US market with too many brands.

If you look at the cars Holden export to the Middle East, there are alot of V8's and Statesman/Caprice vehicles which Toyota don't really compete with.

I put the V8's in a different category as they're a niche market.

But a very simple stat. Market share for Aussie manufacturers has fallen from 30% in 2002 to 19% in 2007. Massive amount. People aren't buying as many Aussie made cars.

The market share has fallen yes but the number of vehicles sold has not. They still sell enough vehicles to be able to sustain themselves, but they need exports to keep full production viable at their current rate.

Wasn't talking about the Falcon. Was talking about Aussie produced cars. I'll have another check through the Bracks report later. But it's around the 50% mark. Not sure what though.

Yes but above all we are discussing the Ford Falcon are we not? Get the Falcons stats.

At the end of the day, market share for Aussie car makers are declining. Export sales are also dropping. It's all about producing a car that people will want and buy.

Australia doesn't have the economies of scale to make a cheap car, so it has to get it's export competitiveness in a different way. If the Middle East will continue to buy heaps of Aussie cars and fleet sales will increase. Then great.

But both of these are decreasing. Sure, other manufacturers who don't have as many fleet sales have decreased more in this period of uncertainty, but the fundamental consumer preferences remain the same and I'm sure things will bounce back to their 2007 state once everything recovers.

I don't think you truly see the situation for what it is. The Holden Commodore is still the most popular car sold in Australia.

The difference between Toyota and Holden is not the commodore. Its the fact that the Commodore is the ONLY car that Holden sell thats really worth buying.

It is the below par Barina, Viva, Captiva, Epica etc. that are hurting Holdens market share, its not so much relevant to the Commodore.

What Holden need to do is build a smaller car alongside the Commodore and thats what they're going to do. Just as Ford is doing with the Focus.

If they can build more competitive variants of their large cars and get them exported also it will make a big impact on their market share.

Likewise with Ford until recently. They have the Falcon and then the Territory. The Territory sales are slowing but thats because they haven't updated it for so many years. With the 09 facelift and a new version due in 2011 Territory sales should pick up. The focus sells well, and will be great once built here. The new Fiesta is a fantastic car that will take alot of the Mazda2's market share, as its really just a better version in every way of the Mazda. Once that goes on sale in January it will booster sales even further. The mondeo's an alright car but its not selling. Thats probably the weak point in Fords lineup at the moment. But they're very well placed for the next few years.

[AirStrike]

After reading all of that all I can really say is..........WHO CARES IF THEY ARE FLEET SALES! A sale is a sale, simple as that and as long as the manufactures are getting sales they will keep making their products.

[commsirac]

After reading all of that all I can really say is..........WHO CARES IF THEY ARE FLEET SALES! A sale is a sale, simple as that and as long as the manufactures are getting sales they will keep making their products.

I care.
Fleet sales are just another taxpayer handout to the car industry. Not only are the car manufacturers getting handouts to manufacturer the cars in the 1st place, half? the vehicles that are sold then get government handouts in the form of tax write offs etc to purchase and run them.

[Sabbath']

I don't think you truly see the situation for what it is. The Holden Commodore is still the most popular car sold in Australia.

Is this due to the fact that people want to buy commdores, or the fact that they staggered the release of the models, which has shown a longer time "on top" for the Commodore?

It is the below par Barina, Viva, Captiva, Epica etc. that are hurting Holdens market share, its not so much relevant to the Commodore.

How is the Captiva hurting the market share of Holden? It's their only SUV related model to even take on the Territory for honours in that category.

I'll agree with you that the Barina and Viva are two very poorly put together. But the Captiva and Epica are a needed sector for Holden - The Captiva for SUV-like capabilities and the Epica for a Mid-size car.

[1991_Vn2nV]

Is this due to the fact that people want to buy commdores, or the fact that they staggered the release of the models, which has shown a longer time "on top" for the Commodore?

The only model that threatens the Commodore is the Corrolla anyway. The staggered release might have hurt Holden as much as it helped as they may have lost sales before the VE wagon and ute were released. But even now that neither are brand new they are still selling rather well (holden ute outsold Ford ute last month).

How is the Captiva hurting the market share of Holden? It's their only SUV related model to even take on the Territory for honours in that category.

I'll agree with you that the Barina and Viva are two very poorly put together. But the Captiva and Epica are a needed sector for Holden - The Captiva for SUV-like capabilities and the Epica for a Mid-size car.

Obviously you don't understand what I was saying.. Of course they're needed segments, I didn't say they shouldn't make cars in this segment I said the current cars offered are below par and thats what is hurting their market share. I.e., the Astra outsold the Viva over 2 to 1 despite the extra cost. If the next Opel Insignia replaced the current Epica im sure it would be a similar success.

[jules]

the problem with astras was that holden wasn't making any real money on them, regardless of sales volumes, due to their cost as sourced from europe (opel).

motoring writers may have slated vivas and epicas, but they only see it from the perspective of what they enjoy test driving. hardly the most important factor to consider when you're trying to run a car company.

moving to korean produced cars was a smart move. it doesn't matter if they sell less of them, the real point for holden is that they make a profit on them. and secondly, holden engineering input will progressively improve the quality of those cars (notwithstanding the fact GM is probably going to fall over, but that isn't holden's fault).

[Sabbath']

Obviously you don't understand what I was saying.. Of course they're needed segments, I didn't say they shouldn't make cars in this segment I said the current cars offered are below par and thats what is hurting their market share. I.e., the Astra outsold the Viva over 2 to 1 despite the extra cost. If the next Opel Insignia replaced the current Epica im sure it would be a similar success.

What is below par about the Epica? The Astra is sure to be a better seller due to the long standing name. Nissan had all kinds of trouble when they re-named the Pulsar because people didnt know the name, so didnt buy the car.

[daniel ohan]

great news...people keep there jobs and ford keeps the I6.

Would have been sad to see that engine go, had my BA XR6 for 2 yrs now and i am very happy with the engine.

I wonder if the new engine will be direct injection, have been reading alot about it lately...

well u cant beat a ford they have loads more torque than a holden v6

[andyman]

well u cant beat a ford they have loads more torque than a holden v6

welcome to the forums bud, but try to keep the thread digging to a minimum, unless its fully constructive comment