For one, there has been a marked change in consumer preferences. Which was truly manifesting itself in stronger economic times. At present, Holden and Ford have received huge bailouts and are heavily discounting their products. That itself would create a certain anomaly, selling at unsustainable prices, but I don't think that's what has caused this differential in sales. I think much of your statistic has to do with fleet purchases. A few months after the financial year is when a lot of fleet purchases are made, which make up 75% of Falcodore sales. I'm willing to accept that fleet purchases will remain relatively stable, however it's the change in consumer prefrences I'm interested in. Any spike Ford may see in sales about this time will not be met be an equiproportionate spike by Mazda due to the strong fleet sales. Minux' vfacts does not suprise me one little bit. When private sales go down and fleet sales go down (but not as much), obviously the ones most affected would be those who sell predominantly to private buyers. If Ford sales are really up by 4.4%, I'd love to see the stat when you isolate the purchasers.All of the Euro sellers are down by 30-45%, it's simply a sign that consumer discretionary spending is tightening. I can pretty much guarantee that once the economy picks up again, people will swing right back into the luxury Euro's, step up their general private vehicle purchases and their money will be distributed in line with their true preferences. Which of course includes Falcodores, but the trend is moving away from them. Now is the worst time to extrapolate future trends based on the period of highest uncertainty in the last 10 years.
The Commodore export is slowing down and the export market is faced with a great number of threats. It's a hugely uncertain move. Amongst other things, Toyota are looking to set up in the Middle East, which will be a killer. Not to mention the threat from China. I put the V8's in a different category as they're a niche market. But a very simple stat. Market share for Aussie manufacturers has fallen from 30% in 2002 to 19% in 2007. Massive amount. People aren't buying as many Aussie made cars. Wasn't talking about the Falcon. Was talking about Aussie produced cars. I'll have another check through the Bracks report later. But it's around the 50% mark. Not sure what though. At the end of the day, market share for Aussie car makers are declining. Export sales are also dropping. It's all about producing a car that people will want and buy. Australia doesn't have the economies of scale to make a cheap car, so it has to get it's export competitiveness in a different way. If the Middle East will continue to buy heaps of Aussie cars and fleet sales will increase. Then great. But both of these are decreasing. Sure, other manufacturers who don't have as many fleet sales have decreased more in this period of uncertainty, but the fundamental consumer preferences remain the same and I'm sure things will bounce back to their 2007 state once everything recovers.
Why post here if all you're going to do is sit there and bob your head in ignorance? Aussie govt and businesses are beginning to purchase non-Aussie stuff for their fleets also. Here's another quote. Making 10 year comparisons is much more valid to see a general trend than comparing the strong Economic times of 2007 with the downturn of 2008.
They don't have to sell in record numbers, just enough to keep production up. Look at the large RWD sedans Ford offer in the USA and various other parts of the world... The FG is very reasonable in comparison. The Commodore exports aren't slowing down everywhere, its mostly the exports to the USA that are really floundering at the moment but thats because GM flood the US market with too many brands. If you look at the cars Holden export to the Middle East, there are alot of V8's and Statesman/Caprice vehicles which Toyota don't really compete with. The market share has fallen yes but the number of vehicles sold has not. They still sell enough vehicles to be able to sustain themselves, but they need exports to keep full production viable at their current rate. Yes but above all we are discussing the Ford Falcon are we not? Get the Falcons stats. I don't think you truly see the situation for what it is. The Holden Commodore is still the most popular car sold in Australia. The difference between Toyota and Holden is not the commodore. Its the fact that the Commodore is the ONLY car that Holden sell thats really worth buying. It is the below par Barina, Viva, Captiva, Epica etc. that are hurting Holdens market share, its not so much relevant to the Commodore. What Holden need to do is build a smaller car alongside the Commodore and thats what they're going to do. Just as Ford is doing with the Focus. If they can build more competitive variants of their large cars and get them exported also it will make a big impact on their market share. Likewise with Ford until recently. They have the Falcon and then the Territory. The Territory sales are slowing but thats because they haven't updated it for so many years. With the 09 facelift and a new version due in 2011 Territory sales should pick up. The focus sells well, and will be great once built here. The new Fiesta is a fantastic car that will take alot of the Mazda2's market share, as its really just a better version in every way of the Mazda. Once that goes on sale in January it will booster sales even further. The mondeo's an alright car but its not selling. Thats probably the weak point in Fords lineup at the moment. But they're very well placed for the next few years.
After reading all of that all I can really say is..........WHO CARES IF THEY ARE FLEET SALES! A sale is a sale, simple as that and as long as the manufactures are getting sales they will keep making their products.
I care. Fleet sales are just another taxpayer handout to the car industry. Not only are the car manufacturers getting handouts to manufacturer the cars in the 1st place, half? the vehicles that are sold then get government handouts in the form of tax write offs etc to purchase and run them.
Is this due to the fact that people want to buy commdores, or the fact that they staggered the release of the models, which has shown a longer time "on top" for the Commodore? How is the Captiva hurting the market share of Holden? It's their only SUV related model to even take on the Territory for honours in that category. I'll agree with you that the Barina and Viva are two very poorly put together. But the Captiva and Epica are a needed sector for Holden - The Captiva for SUV-like capabilities and the Epica for a Mid-size car.
The only model that threatens the Commodore is the Corrolla anyway. The staggered release might have hurt Holden as much as it helped as they may have lost sales before the VE wagon and ute were released. But even now that neither are brand new they are still selling rather well (holden ute outsold Ford ute last month). Obviously you don't understand what I was saying.. Of course they're needed segments, I didn't say they shouldn't make cars in this segment I said the current cars offered are below par and thats what is hurting their market share. I.e., the Astra outsold the Viva over 2 to 1 despite the extra cost. If the next Opel Insignia replaced the current Epica im sure it would be a similar success.
the problem with astras was that holden wasn't making any real money on them, regardless of sales volumes, due to their cost as sourced from europe (opel). motoring writers may have slated vivas and epicas, but they only see it from the perspective of what they enjoy test driving. hardly the most important factor to consider when you're trying to run a car company. moving to korean produced cars was a smart move. it doesn't matter if they sell less of them, the real point for holden is that they make a profit on them. and secondly, holden engineering input will progressively improve the quality of those cars (notwithstanding the fact GM is probably going to fall over, but that isn't holden's fault).
What is below par about the Epica? The Astra is sure to be a better seller due to the long standing name. Nissan had all kinds of trouble when they re-named the Pulsar because people didnt know the name, so didnt buy the car.
welcome to the forums bud, but try to keep the thread digging to a minimum, unless its fully constructive comment
