If you think back to the introduction of the VE, it was touted as the "Billion Dollar Baby". Given that VE production exceeded half a million units and that those enormous development costs have been further amortised during VF production, it would be interesting to know if GM has actually recouped its money post tax and made a profit.
If Holden had remained in production, the VE/VF replacement would have to have been a configuration that Australians are buying in sufficient numbers to make it viable, as well as having strong export potential. The local market alone cannot sustain local production - the Falcon is proof of that. So...a new SUV, that is VERY competitive locally and overseas, in markets that are already saturated with just about every maker in the world building them? And if the VE cost over a billion a decade ago, how much would you have to pour into the new vehicle - 1.5, 2 billion? Who has that sort of money (apart probably from Toyota) to develop a totally new car. Just about every component in the current local Holden production system is unsuitable - particularly the V6 engines, which are too small in capacity and lack the necessary torque to lug heavier bodies around. It would require a completely new body and engine. You might adapt a chassis from an existing or forthcoming model, likewise suspension and brakes, but would it then be viable designing and building an indigenous design, or do you just manufacture and assemble a model from overseas? Probably the latter. Yes, it would keep the factory going and workers employed, but the end product still wouldn't be an "Australian Holden" - just another badge engineering job.
IMO, Holden's problems started around the turn of the century. The Commodore was riding high and sales were very buoyant. The range of different vehicles based on the Commodore floorpan was enormous. The GFC was just another group of letters that hadn't been sighted on the long range radar and the large sedan was Holden's bread and butter. A replacement sedan was the obvious way to go - it was what Holden did best. They also ditched the European models in favour of much cheaper (and far less effective) Korean models. Economically rational but dumb.
But in hindsight, spending a billion dollars designing a new large sedan was the wrong decision. If Holden had commenced development of the right type of vehicle around 2000, instead of the VE, who knows how they might be today? For some years, Ford succeeded with the Territory where Holden failed with the Adventra. The only reason the Territory has fallen away in recent times is because it is now over ten years old and struggles to compete with more modern competition. Had Ford developed a new generation Territory (ala the Everest) for local production, who knows how they might be today, too.
Bad decisions all round. Hard to feel pity for companies that don't clean their crystal balls once in a while.