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How many are left?

Discussion in 'The Pub' started by c2105026, Mar 6, 2018.

  1. c2105026

    c2105026 Active Member

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    Ok so now that no more Aussie Commodores are being made, the number on our roads can only dwindle. As an example, this week at the local wreckers 4 VEs came in.

    The first VEs will turn 12 this year; bear in mind that currently the mean (average) age of a car in Australia is about 10yrs, and the median is about 8.5-9yrs.

    I'm looking at starting a long term study into how many Commodores are still out there. By trade I am a high school maths and engineering studies teacher, and a bit of a maths geek as a result lol.

    The method will be to use the amount of Commodores listed on Carsales - quick, easy, and you can do a quick search on a daily basis and record the data. I am assuming that the amount of cars listed reflects the amount of cars still out there (to a degree). As dealers tend to only do newer cars, I am removing this bias by looking at private sales only. I will also assume that the general volume of cars for private sale on carsales will remain constant - I can record this too, and apply any corrections necessary.

    First data point - 6th March 2018
    VN 11
    VP 5
    VR 18
    VS 37
    VT 114
    VX 159
    VY 219
    VZ 282
    VE 1280
    VF 497
    Total 75622
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2018
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  2. VS 5.0

    VS 5.0 Well-Known Member

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    Millions.

    You would also need to obtain data from Gumtree & Facebook as a minimum to capture a truer number of those for sale.

    What representative % are you factoring in to the degree of numbers for sale relative to numbers still in existence ?
     
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  3. EYY

    EYY Well-Known Member

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    At a guess I’d say that the percentage of cars listed on carsales compared to other sites would be somewhere from 5-10%. Bearing in mind the type of car plays a role in deciding whether to list on gumtree or carsales.

    Due to fees, if the car is worth less than 5k most people don’t tend to bother with carsales. Which means that you’ll find the majority of commodores for sale on social media sites and gumtree, which means that the data you collect from carsales isn’t reflective of the entire population.
     
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  4. figjam

    figjam Donating Member

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    Unless you can get access to Australia wide registration records via NSW RMS, and similar, which would probably be denied due to ‘privacy concerns’, this appears to be a very long term, nearly impossible mission with a constantly moving target.

    If you do hit on workable method, why not include all Oz built Holdens, going back to the FX/48-215. Current generations seem to be forgetting that there were Holdens before Commodore.

    It will be an interesting result, best of luck.
     
  5. stick3

    stick3 Active Member

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    theres a lot for sale or swap on commodore buy sell and swap on facebook, 80k plus members
     
  6. mpower

    mpower Well-Known Member

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    counting them fs is kind of fruitless, the only way to get close to accurate data is how many registered by state - then you have to account for the ones that went to overseas territories - be assured, Commodore (the real ones) will be around for many, many years to come.

    If you are dead serious about the data - I bet that motoring authorities would have this and I can't see any reason why they wouldn't give you a number.
     
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  7. Lex

    Lex Active Member

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    I took one look at those figures, & thought they don't add up, for a maths geek, you can't add.
    When l added them up l came up with 2622. Not 75622. 73000 out.
    Maths geek, l don't think so.
     
  8. c2105026

    c2105026 Active Member

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    75622 was the total number of all cars listed on private sale as of about 10pm last night. Should have made that clearer. That's like the 'control'.

    I do appreciate that this method isn't spot on but you can see a link between roughly how common a vehicle is, and how often its advertised on something like carsales. Like - only 5 or so VPs are on the market, and today they are a fairly rare sight. There's only about 2-3 VPs I see regularly around Orange. However - there are more VNs due to more being made and they are just getting a smidge collectible.

    I guess you can look at this in terms of reduction scrappage. If the number of say VE Commodores for sale go down by 30%, one could infer the entire population of VEs has shrunken by a similar amount from the baseline date. You absolutely won't get a definite figure of what the actual number, but you can analyse scrappage trends.

    Interestingly, classic cars such as everything up to VN appear more often, namely I suppose in a booming market, people try to flip them for a profit.

    I could get this info from NSW at least under FOI/GIPA provisions, but its a 4 page form and $30 any time you want to get data.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2018
  9. c2105026

    c2105026 Active Member

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    So after 2 months and 3 weeks we are seeing some movement. Whilst the total number of cars listed privately has increased slightly, there are some decreases from the baseline. First number is baseline, 2nd is what it is now, 3rd is what baseline 'should' be taking into account actual total private vehicles listed.

    VN 11 -15-11:
    VP 5 -16 -5: Big jump in cars coming to market. Not surprising due to potential rising values/collectability.
    VR 18 -19-18: Stable
    VS 37 -38-38: stable
    VT 114 -92-116: Significant (20%+) attrition in not even 3 months!
    VX 159 - 152-161: Slight decrease
    VY 219 -193-222: Noticeable decrease
    VZ 282 -289-286: stable
    VE 1280 - 1295 -1298: stable
    VF 497 - 542 - increasing (older car more likely on market - to be expected)
    Total of all makes/models listed 75622 - 76650

    The VT figure not surprising. There were some VTs I used to see in my immediate neighbourhood, 2 or 3, I dont' see now......
     
  10. c2105026

    c2105026 Active Member

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    6 months on
    VN -12 (bottomed out and fluctuating)
    VP - 13 (bottomed out and fluctuating)
    VR - 16 (very low and fluctuating)
    VS - 42 (stable)
    VT I/II - 78 (significant drop)
    VX - 112 - big drop
    VY - 165 - big drop
    VZ - 247 - bit of a drop
    VE - 1162-bit of a drop
     
  11. Drewie

    Drewie Active Member

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    I often sit in the car when the wife goes shopping at one of the very big shopping centres here in Melbourne, sitting there the other day I could see maybe 3 very long rows of cars from where I was parked and I was the only Commodore I could see. Same when you stop at the lights on a busy day there is often not a Commodore in sight, so they are an endangered species.
     
  12. vc commodore

    vc commodore Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't say Commodores are endangered....I see plenty on my too and from work.....It maybe due to the influx of other cars, which can make it difficult to spot them
     
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  13. losh1971

    losh1971 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I saw either a VB or VC the other day and we have a population of under 100k where I live, so even the earliest models are still about. Currently 84 various Commodores for sale on Launceston Gumtree. I walk past at least 5 on my way to work each morning that's an average of one per block.... Endangered not in this decade or the next at least....
     
  14. vc commodore

    vc commodore Well-Known Member

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    The area I live is a square area, about 1 kilometre between main roads....Lost count of Commodores in my area....There is about 3 other VB's to VK's in this area, discounting my VC and VH...I reckon there is 3 or 4 VF's around the area too...Not to mention the other models.

    I surpose it's a case of noticing, which some people don't...No offense intended to anyone either
     
  15. losh1971

    losh1971 Well-Known Member

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    VR's seem to be a bit rarer for a relatively new Commodore compared to some. A lot more VS' getting around than VR's. It's only speculation but maybe VR being the last of the Buick people were holding off for the new VS engine. I remember the latter occurred when people were waiting for the VN. VN was going to be the new best thing, when GMH announced it. I remember the hype about the new V6 and how good it was going to be.
     
  16. Drewie

    Drewie Active Member

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    Might be to do with different areas, mine is the only one around my immediate area apart from a VZ Fusion Monaro in the area. Mostly European and Asian cars, lots of Audi's and Benz, heaps of SUV's. I probably used the wrong terminology saying endangered but definitely a lot less in the area I live in. Daughter ordered dinner tonight via Uber Eats and the guy delivered in a late model BMW.
     
  17. figjam

    figjam Donating Member

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    I think the Aussie made vehicle is now an endangered species.
    There are plenty of high end late model Commodores/ Falcons/ Territories in our area, but today I took a drive on the M1 goat-track to the Gosford Classic Car Museum, and was surprised by the lack of them during the trip.
    By far, the most numerous is a ladder framed, leaf sprung, drum braked, monster wheeled pickup/ute. Closely followed by jacked-up hatchbacks (SUVs) of all sizes and brands. And Mustangs …… nearly as common as road-kill kangaroos.
    Perhaps the remaining Aussie cars are being kept in sheds for a sunny day, and less desirable vehicles are used for the daily thump and bang and scrape.
     
  18. afstruct

    afstruct Well-Known Member

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    Still see plenty of Commodores around my area.
    Even considering their age quite a few vr/vs utes.
    VE/VFs of all models and hsvs ( see lots ) tempting me( but I can't see it ever happening.
    Bring down the price of the dodge hellcat so I can drool over one sitting in my garage, ( instead of a mustang , which I do like), ( might add I don't own either of these) ha ha ha , I wish I did.
    More chance of a really nice vf redline .
    There's a ve sv6 wagon and same in vf plus vu ute just in my street alone.
    Plus a HQ prem which sees the light of day every so often.
    Plus 2 dedicated ford fans across the and down the road a bit .
    And my streets only about 530 meters long.
    Even a few ve HSVs and newer around.
    But eventually closet toys.

    What's that Gosford museum like , I do want to go.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2018
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  19. figjam

    figjam Donating Member

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    I was there about 2 years ago and the place was chockers. They had an outdoor annex full of Soviet era cars …. Trabants, Zils and others that I had never heard of. Not there now.
    The showroom is spotlessly clean and the cars very well presented, and all the cars on show are for sale. A white VC Brock $85,000.
    A lot of Ferraris, some British cars with long forgotten names, and the usual smattering of desirable old Holdens, Fords and Valiants. A light green FE ute and a white Mk1 Zephyr, both of which could have been my Dad’s, and what I learned to drive in.
    The most interesting are the 60s > 70s Yank tanks. Metres of unnecessary sheet metal, but they have character, something that is missing from today’s same as same cookie cutter cars.
    Worth a visit, just to be able to say you have been there, and a lot of old farts reminiscing about what they had, so it is easy to strike up a conversation.
     
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  20. VS 5.0

    VS 5.0 Well-Known Member

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    None of that sheet metal is unnecessary.
     
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