How many are left?

[c2105026]

Ok so now that no more Aussie Commodores are being made, the number on our roads can only dwindle. As an example, this week at the local wreckers 4 VEs came in.

The first VEs will turn 12 this year; bear in mind that currently the mean (average) age of a car in Australia is about 10yrs, and the median is about 8.5-9yrs.

I'm looking at starting a long term study into how many Commodores are still out there. By trade I am a high school maths and engineering studies teacher, and a bit of a maths geek as a result lol.

The method will be to use the amount of Commodores listed on Carsales - quick, easy, and you can do a quick search on a daily basis and record the data. I am assuming that the amount of cars listed reflects the amount of cars still out there (to a degree). As dealers tend to only do newer cars, I am removing this bias by looking at private sales only. I will also assume that the general volume of cars for private sale on carsales will remain constant - I can record this too, and apply any corrections necessary.

First data point - 6th March 2018
VN 11
VP 5
VR 18
VS 37
VT 114
VX 159
VY 219
VZ 282
VE 1280
VF 497
Total 75622

 

[VS 5.0]

How many are left?

Millions.

You would also need to obtain data from Gumtree & Facebook as a minimum to capture a truer number of those for sale.

What representative % are you factoring in to the degree of numbers for sale relative to numbers still in existence ?

 

[EYY]

At a guess I’d say that the percentage of cars listed on carsales compared to other sites would be somewhere from 5-10%. Bearing in mind the type of car plays a role in deciding whether to list on gumtree or carsales.

Due to fees, if the car is worth less than 5k most people don’t tend to bother with carsales. Which means that you’ll find the majority of commodores for sale on social media sites and gumtree, which means that the data you collect from carsales isn’t reflective of the entire population.

 

[figjam]

Unless you can get access to Australia wide registration records via NSW RMS, and similar, which would probably be denied due to ‘privacy concerns’, this appears to be a very long term, nearly impossible mission with a constantly moving target.

If you do hit on workable method, why not include all Oz built Holdens, going back to the FX/48-215. Current generations seem to be forgetting that there were Holdens before Commodore.

It will be an interesting result, best of luck.

 

[stick3]

theres a lot for sale or swap on commodore buy sell and swap on facebook, 80k plus members

 

[mpower]

counting them fs is kind of fruitless, the only way to get close to accurate data is how many registered by state - then you have to account for the ones that went to overseas territories - be assured, Commodore (the real ones) will be around for many, many years to come.

If you are dead serious about the data - I bet that motoring authorities would have this and I can't see any reason why they wouldn't give you a number.

 

[Lex]

Ok so now that no more Aussie Commodores are being made, the number on our roads can only dwindle. As an example, this week at the local wreckers 4 VEs came in.

The first VEs will turn 12 this year; bear in mind that currently the mean (average) age of a car in Australia is about 10yrs, and the median is about 8.5-9yrs.

I'm looking at starting a long term study into how many Commodores are still out there. By trade I am a high school maths and engineering studies teacher, and a bit of a maths geek as a result lol.

The method will be to use the amount of Commodores listed on Carsales - quick, easy, and you can do a quick search on a daily basis and record the data. I am assuming that the amount of cars listed reflects the amount of cars still out there (to a degree). As dealers tend to only do newer cars, I am removing this bias by looking at private sales only. I will also assume that the general volume of cars for private sale on carsales will remain constant - I can record this too, and apply any corrections necessary.

First data point - 6th March 2018
VN 11
VP 5
VR 18
VS 37
VT 114
VX 159
VY 219
VZ 282
VE 1280
VF 497
Total 75622

I took one look at those figures, & thought they don't add up, for a maths geek, you can't add.
When l added them up l came up with 2622. Not 75622. 73000 out.
Maths geek, l don't think so.

 

[c2105026]

I took one look at those figures, & thought they don't add up, for a maths geek, you can't add.
When l added them up l came up with 2622. Not 75622. 73000 out.
Maths geek, l don't think so.

75622 was the total number of all cars listed on private sale as of about 10pm last night. Should have made that clearer. That's like the 'control'.

I do appreciate that this method isn't spot on but you can see a link between roughly how common a vehicle is, and how often its advertised on something like carsales. Like - only 5 or so VPs are on the market, and today they are a fairly rare sight. There's only about 2-3 VPs I see regularly around Orange. However - there are more VNs due to more being made and they are just getting a smidge collectible.

I guess you can look at this in terms of reduction scrappage. If the number of say VE Commodores for sale go down by 30%, one could infer the entire population of VEs has shrunken by a similar amount from the baseline date. You absolutely won't get a definite figure of what the actual number, but you can analyse scrappage trends.

Interestingly, classic cars such as everything up to VN appear more often, namely I suppose in a booming market, people try to flip them for a profit.

I could get this info from NSW at least under FOI/GIPA provisions, but its a 4 page form and $30 any time you want to get data.

 

[c2105026]

So after 2 months and 3 weeks we are seeing some movement. Whilst the total number of cars listed privately has increased slightly, there are some decreases from the baseline. First number is baseline, 2nd is what it is now, 3rd is what baseline 'should' be taking into account actual total private vehicles listed.

VN 11 -15-11:
VP 5 -16 -5: Big jump in cars coming to market. Not surprising due to potential rising values/collectability.
VR 18 -19-18: Stable
VS 37 -38-38: stable
VT 114 -92-116: Significant (20%+) attrition in not even 3 months!
VX 159 - 152-161: Slight decrease
VY 219 -193-222: Noticeable decrease
VZ 282 -289-286: stable
VE 1280 - 1295 -1298: stable
VF 497 - 542 - increasing (older car more likely on market - to be expected)
Total of all makes/models listed 75622 - 76650

The VT figure not surprising. There were some VTs I used to see in my immediate neighbourhood, 2 or 3, I dont' see now......

 

[c2105026]

Ok so now that no more Aussie Commodores are being made, the number on our roads can only dwindle. As an example, this week at the local wreckers 4 VEs came in.

The first VEs will turn 12 this year; bear in mind that currently the mean (average) age of a car in Australia is about 10yrs, and the median is about 8.5-9yrs.

I'm looking at starting a long term study into how many Commodores are still out there. By trade I am a high school maths and engineering studies teacher, and a bit of a maths geek as a result lol.

The method will be to use the amount of Commodores listed on Carsales - quick, easy, and you can do a quick search on a daily basis and record the data. I am assuming that the amount of cars listed reflects the amount of cars still out there (to a degree). As dealers tend to only do newer cars, I am removing this bias by looking at private sales only. I will also assume that the general volume of cars for private sale on carsales will remain constant - I can record this too, and apply any corrections necessary.

First data point - 6th March 2018
VN 11
VP 5
VR 18
VS 37
VT 114
VX 159
VY 219
VZ 282
VE 1280
VF 497
Total 75622

6 months on
VN -12 (bottomed out and fluctuating)
VP - 13 (bottomed out and fluctuating)
VR - 16 (very low and fluctuating)
VS - 42 (stable)
VT I/II - 78 (significant drop)
VX - 112 - big drop
VY - 165 - big drop
VZ - 247 - bit of a drop
VE - 1162-bit of a drop