JC Political Thread - For All Things Political Part 2

[gopher]

Man am I feeling torn atm with state politics. If an election were to be called now I would seriously not know who to vote for.

LMAO what happened? didn't get the change you were promised?
don't worry i believe Qld will be much worse off and i also believe Victorians aren't too happy either

hopefully Australians are clever enough next year to not allow it to go federal

 

[DAKSTER]

Apparently the next election isn't as forgone a conclusion as some would believe.. you Libs really need to get rid of Abbot before its too late....

Sydney Morning Herald


"Labor and Prime Minister Julia Gillard have improved their standing in two new opinion polls published on Monday.

The Newspoll, published in The Australian newspaper, shows Labor and the coalition are evenly ranked at 50 per cent each in the two-party preferred stakes ahead of the federal election due next year.

Since the last poll two weeks ago, Labor's primary support has gone up three percentage points to 36 per cent, while the coalition's crashed five points to 41 - its lowest since March 2011.

Meanwhile, in the leadership stakes, voter satisfaction with Ms Gillard is now at 36 per cent - its highest since December - while dissatisfaction with her performance fell five points from two weeks ago to 52.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's satisfaction rating was virtually unchanged at 30 per cent and likewise his dissatisfaction level stayed at 60.

As for who would make the better prime minister, support for Ms Gillard jumped seven points to 46 per cent, while Mr Abbott's slumped six points from a fortnight ago to 32.

The 14-point lead is the biggest Ms Gillard has commanded over Mr Abbott in 16 months.

Meanwhile, the latest Nielsen poll, published in Fairfax newspapers, showed the coalition's two-party-preferred vote slipping one point in the last three weeks, but it still holds an election-winning lead of 53 per cent to Labor's 47, up one point.

But there were a steady gain elsewhere as well, with Labor's primary vote increasing two points to 34, while the coalition stayed on 45 and the Greens lost one point to 10.

Ms Gillard also leads Mr Abbott as preferred leader by three points - 47 per cent (up one point) to 44 (down one).

Her approval rating also has risen by three points to 42, and her disapproval rating has fallen four points to 53 - her highest approval and lowest disapproval since May last year.

Meanwhile, Mr Abbott's approval rating has weakened three points to a record low of 36, as controversy swirls about his behaviour as an undergraduate 35 years ago.

Among women, he is 12 points behind as preferred prime minister, but leads by five points among men.

The Australian said some of the issues affecting the Newspoll results included Labor's campaign against Mr Abbott over allegations of intimidation during his university days, its ban on a Dutch super-trawler from Australian waters and the first asylum seekers arriving on Nauru, while Ms Gillard took a week off to mourn her father's death."

 

[DAKSTER]

This is interesting too.. just an extract, the article was too long to post, so I suggest you read the link for balance. It would seem both parties would benefit from a change of leadership, but Libs more so than Labs. Rudd is slightly ahead of Gillard, and would win an election against Abbot at the moment. Turnbull would blitz the lot of them.

The Age

"Since early June, Ms Gillard has substantially narrowed Mr Rudd's lead as preferred Labor leader, while fewer people than before think the ALP should change leaders.

But if the change were made, the poll has Labor's primary vote on 44 per cent, 10 points higher than its present level, and the ALP leading the Coalition in two-party terms 53-47 per cent - an exact reversal of the current result.

Mr Rudd remains much more popular than Ms Gillard but his support has fallen while hers has risen; 55 per cent (down 7 points since early June) prefer him as Labor leader while 37 per cent (up 5) opt for her. Among Labor voters, Ms Gillard is ahead of Mr Rudd by 52 per cent to 47 per cent; she trails among Coalition supporters 28-60 per cent.

Voters are now equally divided (48 per cent each) on whether the ALP should change leaders, compared with 52 per cent in favour of change and 45 per cent advocating staying with Ms Gillard in early June. Two-thirds of ALP voters want Ms Gillard retained as leader; more than six in 10 Coalition supporters advocate change.

If the poll result of a Rudd versus Abbott face-off was repeated at an election, it would give a result similar to Mr Rudd's 2007 victory.

Pollster John Stirton said that ''given his long-term popularity, it is not surprising that a switch to Kevin Rudd would give Labor a boost. What we don't know is how long Mr Rudd would retain this increased support.''

Mr Turnbull enjoys extremely strong and growing support - outpolling Mr Abbott by more than two to one as preferred Liberal leader. His support has risen 2 points to 63 per cent since early June; Mr Abbott's fell 4 points to 30 per cent. Mr Turnbull is overwhelmingly ahead among Labor voters but also leads convincingly among Coalition supporters."

 

[Calaber]

Well, I've said this more than once. Abbott is not PM material. Never was, never will be.

If the Libs think the next federal result is a foregone conclusion, these recent polls might make them sit up and think. I suspect a number of factors are at play with this latest poll.

1. State politics is having a bearing on the results. Qld, NSW and Vic governments are all engaged in extremely unpopular cost cutting exercises which are annoying Liberal and non-liberal voters equally.
2. Gillard has been absent recently owing to the death of her father. Perhaps in her case, a small sympathy vote effect has slightly elevated her polling?
3. Abbott's alleged wall punching. Who cares a fig what he did 35 years ago when he was a political pup? Some people, I guess.
4. Abbott's poor media performance in general. He never seems comfortable in front of the camera, his answers are stilted and patchy and he doesn't always seem prepared for the next question. This makes him appear evasive, and in turn, untrustworthy to those who choose to think that way.
5. Abbott's lack of variation in attack and his constant harping about "toxic taxes" and overall negativity. It's worn thin and the electorate is sick of the same old hymn. He needs to start proposing positive outcomes under a Coalition government, not just cutting back Labor's excesses. (The announcement regarding funding for the Pacific Highway is a start but it's easy to make promises from Opposition a year out from an election, isn't it?)

I too beleive that Turnbull would be a far more effective PM. I wonder if he can do a Lazarus like Howard and rise from the ashes in time? Doubt it, unless Tony gets a tap on the shoulder, which doesn't seem too likely.

 

[MasterOfReality]

I think Tony will find himself the target of a leadership spill sooner or later. If Gillard and ALP keep improving their position, then Tony is finished. He has spent all he has got and its getting tiresome now.

It seems that Gillard always improves when she keeps her trap shut and face out of the media. Also with Newman burning the public service there are a lot of people squealing like stuck pigs. That wouldn't help.

I reckon its going to be Turnbull or perhaps even Scott Morrison that will have a go. Although Turnbull has too much baggage with his stupidity regarding Utegate and he supports the ETS which cost him his position in the first place.

 

[Cheap6]

Well, I've said this more than once. Abbott is not PM material. Never was, never will be.

If the Libs think the next federal result is a foregone conclusion, these recent polls might make them sit up and think. I suspect a number of factors are at play with this latest poll.

To your list I would add the complete non event the Carbon tax has revealed itself to be. Labor has even screwed it up, even making ad hoc changes, and Abbott can't push them to do better without backing away from his position that it shouldn't exist.

Yes, Newman (the other state governments to a lesser degree) has hobbled his other key "policy" by demonstrating what "cut the waste" might look like. He's not politically dead yet but there's some time to pass before the next election.

 

[Calaber]

To your list I would add the complete non event the Carbon tax has revealed itself to be. Labor has even screwed it up, even making ad hoc changes, and Abbott can't push them to do better without backing away from his position that it shouldn't exist.

I still have mixed feelings about the impact of the carbon tax and I'm not sure that Labor can feel completely comfortable about it yet. In fact, I doubt that they will ever be totally comfortable about its effect on the cost of living. The point has been made frequently that the immediate impact wouldn't be felt for some months, by which time electricity accounts would start landing in letterboxes, retailers would be able to assess the impact on their operating costs and the full effect would be reflected in any price increases that might result.

Well, those power bills have started to arrive and people are not happy. Retailers are upset because their operating cost increases are coinciding with serious downturns in sales. Some of the increase is due to state government utility costs but there is always the "9 to 10 percent" impact of a carbon tax that remains of dubious value. Abbott needs to refresh his approach and give the "toxic tax" line a rest, but the community can judge for itself just how much of an impact the carbon tax will have by Christmas, and not the 1st of July as Swan so stupidly stated.

No Wayne, the sky hasn't fallen in.......yet. Your Armageddon occurs around this time next year, pal.

 

[DAKSTER]

I think Tony will find himself the target of a leadership spill sooner or later. If Gillard and ALP keep improving their position, then Tony is finished. He has spent all he has got and its getting tiresome now.

It seems that Gillard always improves when she keeps her trap shut and face out of the media. Also with Newman burning the public service there are a lot of people squealing like stuck pigs. That wouldn't help.

I reckon its going to be Turnbull or perhaps even Scott Morrison that will have a go. Although Turnbull has too much baggage with his stupidity regarding Utegate and he supports the ETS which cost him his position in the first place.

The ETS however only cost Turnbull votes within the party room. Times have changed. The bottom line is and always will be 'can this man win the next election'. With Abbot at the helm, it's rapidly starting to look like a sinking refuge boat, getting there is pretty risky. With Turnbull at the helm, the polls give Turnbull an easy victory. With public support backing him at a rate of 2:1 vs Abbot, they would be mad not to back him in a spill.

Julia it appears has finally realised that the best thing she can do about Abbot is just let him froth at the mouth. If she shuts up enough, he will dig his own hole.

 

[Reaper]

Dunno - 1 bad week of polling mid cycle doesn't win/loose an election. I don't think anything conclusive can be drawn for a few months to see if the trend has turned or not. It is interesting that every time Gillard gets a bounce in the polls she is overseas or on holiday or otherwise not here.

Reaper

 

[Grennan]

Dunno - 1 bad week of polling mid cycle doesn't win/loose an election.

Reaper

Pretty much this.

One bad week of polling which is coming off a heavy smear campaign against Abbott and Gillard drawing the sympathy card cause her dad just died.

Dont get ahead of yourselves.