Well, I've said this more than once. Abbott is not PM material. Never was, never will be.
If the Libs think the next federal result is a foregone conclusion, these recent polls might make them sit up and think. I suspect a number of factors are at play with this latest poll.
1. State politics is having a bearing on the results. Qld, NSW and Vic governments are all engaged in extremely unpopular cost cutting exercises which are annoying Liberal and non-liberal voters equally.
2. Gillard has been absent recently owing to the death of her father. Perhaps in her case, a small sympathy vote effect has slightly elevated her polling?
3. Abbott's alleged wall punching. Who cares a fig what he did 35 years ago when he was a political pup? Some people, I guess.
4. Abbott's poor media performance in general. He never seems comfortable in front of the camera, his answers are stilted and patchy and he doesn't always seem prepared for the next question. This makes him appear evasive, and in turn, untrustworthy to those who choose to think that way.
5. Abbott's lack of variation in attack and his constant harping about "toxic taxes" and overall negativity. It's worn thin and the electorate is sick of the same old hymn. He needs to start proposing positive outcomes under a Coalition government, not just cutting back Labor's excesses. (The announcement regarding funding for the Pacific Highway is a start but it's easy to make promises from Opposition a year out from an election, isn't it?)
I too beleive that Turnbull would be a far more effective PM. I wonder if he can do a Lazarus like Howard and rise from the ashes in time? Doubt it, unless Tony gets a tap on the shoulder, which doesn't seem too likely.