Just Commodores Forum Community

It takes just a moment to join our fantastic community

Register

VT SS Commodore Appreciation Data

Discussion in 'The Pub' started by Smithston, Dec 12, 2019.

  1. Smithston

    Smithston New Member

    Messages:
    23
    Likes Received:
    20
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2016
    Location:
    Newcastle
    Members Ride:
    Vt ss 5.0
    There has been a lot of talk about whether SS Commies are going to rise in value.

    Time to share some info which may help answer the question and probably also have huge holes in logic which will be exposed. For what its worth have a read if its interesting to you. Apologies for the length

    We know VNs are asking big dollars and have been for some time

    But now, asking prices for the three VT SS on carsales: 9800, 15000 and 16000. Whether they will get that much is debatable but 4 years ago nobody was asking more than 5k.

    I know i have been tracking aversge asking prices for 5lt VTSS on a graph since 2015. I own one so i was interested but i think the same findings would be true for all your V8 SS so sm posting for all. No doubt the special ones (eg HSV) will show even better results.

    I got interested then to see what would happen post close of production.

    For the other geeks and maths teachers out there the equation that fits the data from december 2015 to december 2019 is this:

    Y = 119.2x + 4979

    This means in 2015 the average asking price was 4979

    If you stayed awake during maths you might recall the graph y = mx + b. B is the reading or average value at dec 2015 when i started recording. M is the gradient... the rise in value for every unit of time

    I have recorded the average asking price on carsales for 5.0lt vt ss 34 times in 4 years. That's about once every 42 days.

    So every 40 days the asking price has increased by $119.2

    If you want to get exact it works out at $2.78 increase in asking price every day

    Who ever thought maths would actually be useful.

    It all depends on whether asking prices on carsales are any indication of value. I think people generally ask too much but even if you halved the asking prices over the past 4 years you would still find the same trend

    And its not just for the VT.

    I also graphed the EL XR8 as my bro has one. Similar equation....

    Y = 137.49 × 6816

    Same thing. Going up consistently over the past 4 years.

    For both, most of the increase had been in the past 2 years.
     
  2. mpower

    mpower Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    3,601
    Likes Received:
    468
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2007
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Members Ride:
    V2 CV8 Monaro and VF SSV Redline
    carsales is a poor metric, too many dreamers.

    upload_2019-12-12_11-10-33.png
     
    VS 5.0 and lmoengnr like this.
  3. blackve76

    blackve76 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,638
    Likes Received:
    386
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2013
    Location:
    there
    Members Ride:
    VE SS ute 360rwkw N/A, 2016 VF2 SS M6
    Would love a 5l 195kw VT SS manual but hard to find
     
  4. zeropalooba

    zeropalooba Member

    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    22
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2009
    Location:
    Sydney
    Members Ride:
    VS Acclaim L67 manual
    It's interesting that it's a straight line function. I would have thought it would be moderately exponential. Perhaps over 4 years it approximates a straight line, but over maybe 20 or 30 years it loses linearity. I have a VS L67 manual and I doubt there will ever be any data on its appreciation.
     
  5. VS 5.0

    VS 5.0 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    4,363
    Likes Received:
    4,034
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2006
    Location:
    Perth WA
    Members Ride:
    VE SSV Z Series M6
    Got a graph ?
     
  6. Smithston

    Smithston New Member

    Messages:
    23
    Likes Received:
    20
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2016
    Location:
    Newcastle
    Members Ride:
    Vt ss 5.0
    15761183245912161799532319490824.jpg Equation is a trendline
     
    VS 5.0 likes this.
  7. Smithston

    Smithston New Member

    Messages:
    23
    Likes Received:
    20
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2016
    Location:
    Newcastle
    Members Ride:
    Vt ss 5.0
  8. Smithston

    Smithston New Member

    Messages:
    23
    Likes Received:
    20
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2016
    Location:
    Newcastle
    Members Ride:
    Vt ss 5.0
    Sorry i should have said it was a trendline. Graph below.... above.... somewhere. Probably heavily influenced by speculative increase in last 12 months. We will see in a other 4 years!
     
    wetwork65 likes this.
  9. Drawnnite

    Drawnnite Obviously Unsensible

    Messages:
    1,398
    Likes Received:
    190
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2010
    Location:
    Victoria
    Members Ride:
    2000 Vs Ute
    I think it all depends on want vs rarity and everything else inbetween.
    Rare doesn't always mean wanted.
    A great comparison is the BMX bikes from the 80s.
    Some were very common but the costs now are quite up there to buy them, and of course there are the dreamers out there.
    However some of the "rare" items don't have as much value because back then they weren't wanted and still aren't wanted today.

    Still kicking myself, about 8 years ago was looking at a few weekend cars, such as EH's all the way through to HSV VZ Coupes (GTO). Either way they would have been a nice buy, especially since the GTOs have gone up a good $30-40k in that time.
     

Share This Page