Will our machines be saved from the electric wave ?

[chrisp]

All of what you said is correct. But you assume every house is only going to use one car.

I haven’t assumed one car per household as such, I have done the energy calculation on a per-car basis.

If you multiply my calculations by 1.8 (average cars per household) you’ll have the average numbers for the average household.

 

[shane_3800]

The short answer is yes, the capacity and expansion exists and is prepared for an EV increase based on current rates of uptake. It won't be a smooth road no doubt but Govco incentives (they have a huge vested interest in anything that impacts fuel excise) and residential solar will assist the transition greatly. Also the increases and uptake of battery farms will improve efficiently significantly. Look at the success of the Tesla farm in SA. We need more of that. Either way where there is demand there will be supply

I think the bigger challenge is building infrastructure so that when I drive to Airlie Beach from Canberra I can still do it in two days not five

I haven't actually looked into it but I've heard mixed reports on how successful the Tesla Battery in SA actually is.

I have seen a water iron battery design that has unlimited cycle life which is an issue that plauges LI-Ion batteries but power density is far far from LI-Ion but it uses water and the chemicals aren't toxic. I'll try and find the video.

 

[Pollushon]

The numbers speak for themselves, it's been a smashing success, even though it's very small. Like electric evangelists there are also detractors who talk rubbish, like about lion being worse for the environment than fossil fuels and land clearing for solar and wind which is all a complete fallacy. The owner Neoen is so happy with it they're doubling capacity and there are various projects underway Australia wide to build more

The thing with a battery farm is not its storage so much as its ability to manage a grid. It's like a gigantic super capacitor. Unlike gas and coal which spool up and down very inefficiently a battery responds perfectly to demand fluctuations without wasting a watt. When those blackouts occur during summer and we're asked to think about the grid it isn't because of a lack of power. It's a lack of control over said power that's the issue

 

[Skylarking]

@shane_3800 you‘re sounding a little like those buggy and buggy whip manufacturers of days gone by. Reality is we can know what is 10 years down the road and what societal change some ground braking discovery will result in...

Just remember, there were knowledgeable people that capped vehicle ownership within the USA at the thousands because of limitations in training chauffeurs Then Ford developed the assembly line and mass manufacture

But in relation to battery technology, what‘s publicly available information today as compared to what’s in the lab makes it hard to forecast anything. Today’s tech is probably very limited in comparison with what may be available in just 10 years. We really have no idea of the secretive developement that is occuring which is why saying stuff won’t ever happen is rather myopic.

Heck, who would have imagined vertical landing rockets 10 years ago when rocket experts back then were questioning whether such was even possible Musk proved them all wrong

Oh, and in terms of vehicle ownership, you do realise we are all at the mercy of manufacturers, their self interests and the market as a whole. Just like GM pulled the plug in manufacture within Australia, vehicle manufacturers will decide what’s best for them and governments can’t and won’t force vehicle manufacturer for build stuff for the plebs. So it’s not inconceivable that the private vehicles could exist only at upper end of society, the rest of us plebs can take a pod.... Such could be hurried along by registration and running costs being increased by governments for all vehicles to push their own agenda using “green environmental“ arguments to justify it all...

Its a brave new world

 

[Ginger Beer]

Not an issue for my lifetime

I plan to burn as much Dino juice as possible

Me and Captain Planet are definitely not friends

 

[Skylarking]

@Pollushon, power distribution will be an enormous challenge and a costly issue to resolve.

Just look at the infrastructure within your ones own street where their power lines most likely will need to be upgraded to carry the demand that EV’s will place on the infrastructure. Can’t have the power lines glowing red or the line transformers exploding due to overload This will be a network wide issue as no one envisaged all households charging their multiple cars, running large aircon systems and those huge flat panel TV’s and computers within each household. It’s amazing yje system hasn’t fallen in a heap already. Black and brown outs may be just around the corner for us Aussies.

And roof top solar power causes its own issues (with network control) but everyone doesn’t have roof space (or enough roof space) so they can install such systems. It ain’t just apartment dwellers either.

No doubt we‘ll all rise to the occasion and such difficulties will be resolved but it won’t be free... it
will cost us all. Just don’t mention EV tax to SA and VIC dwellers

Me I’d prefer to go off grid but I believe there are issues with limited system size in the city if you want some government kickbacks grants.

 

[shane_3800]

@shane_3800 you‘re sounding a little like those buggy and buggy whip manufacturers of days gone by. Reality is we can know what is 10 years down the road and what societal change some ground braking discovery will result in...

Just remember, there were knowledgeable people that capped vehicle ownership within the USA at the thousands because of limitations in training chauffeurs Then Ford developed the assembly line and mass manufacture

But in relation to battery technology, what‘s publicly available information today as compared to what’s in the lab makes it hard to forecast anything. Today’s tech is probably very limited in comparison with what may be available in just 10 years. We really have no idea of the secretive developement that is occuring which is why saying stuff won’t ever happen is rather myopic.

Heck, who would have imagined vertical landing rockets 10 years ago when rocket experts back then were questioning whether such was even possible Musk proved them all wrong

Oh, and in terms of vehicle ownership, you do realise we are all at the mercy of manufacturers, their self interests and the market as a whole. Just like GM pulled the plug in manufacture within Australia, vehicle manufacturers will decide what’s best for them and governments can’t and won’t force vehicle manufacturer for build stuff for the plebs. So it’s not inconceivable that the private vehicles could exist only at upper end of society, the rest of us plebs can take a pod.... Such could be hurried along by registration and running costs being increased by governments for all vehicles to push their own agenda using “green environmental“ arguments to justify it all...

Its a brave new world

So a battery will never output more energy than it's potential bassed on the mass of the battery.
This means there is an upper limit to a batteries energy density. A fuel like hydrogen fuel cell has a mass depleting fuel like petrol.

I've looked into many battery technologies and some can reach 6x density but will lack output in amps. The best batteries are going to be about 2.5x with good discharge rates and are about 10 years off.

Atm with batteries we are in the 80's of ICE's when we get to the current age of ICE's it will be similar gains. There won't ever be a major leap forward giving 20x the power density with 20x the discharge rates it just wont happen because it defies physics.

 

[shane_3800]

If there was going to be a quantum leap in batteries like the pipe dreamers hope where is the 80% efficent petroleum engines? It defies physics for petrol to be burnt 80% efficent just like batteries will defy physics if they increase power densities and discharge rates to astronomical levels.

If such battery tech exists or is possible proove it or you're just talking BS like some in the viral thread.

 

[VS 5.0]

I find it interesting to numerate things a bit to get a better understanding of the viability of the technology and the energy needs.

Using a few assumptions to do a back-of-the-envelope calculation, I will assume for purposes of the calculation that the average domestic car does about 15,000km per year. This equates to 41km per day.

I had a quick look on the web to find out how much energy an electric vehicle uses. A Tessa Model 3 uses about 18kWh per 100 km, so to cover 41 km it’d need about 7.5kWh per day.

In Melbourne, the PV output factor for solar systems is 3.6 kWh/day/kW of solar panels. i.e. a 1 kW solar system will produce an average of 3,6kWh per day in Melbourne. So to provide the energy for the EV a household would need 7.5 kWh / 3.6 = 2kW PV system. The typical PV installations are about 6 ~ 7 kW today (20 panels) , so by adding, or allowing, another 2kW (6 panels) the average energy needs of the vehicle would also be covered.

Of course this calculation is an average over the whole year, and the output will sometimes be higher and sometimes it’ll be lower, but the calculation does show that an EV is very viable from a domestic perspective.

Also, after the initial capital costs, an EV will be very economical to run. Service needs on an EV are much lower than on an ICE vehicle. The motors are usually 3-phase induction motors with very few wearing parts. Even brakes get an easy life in EVs and most of the braking is done by the motors (to recover energy) so brake pads will last a lot longer than in an ICE vehicle.

Just need battery storage at home to charge over night.

 

[Pollushon]

@Pollushon, power distribution will be an enormous challenge and a costly issue to resolve.

I don't agree with that statement at all. It will grow over time with the uptake. Business will see the opportunities and capitalise on them. Usual maintenance and upgrades will facilitate the rest. Most energy companies have solid strategies in place (there are profit margins to increase after all) and given they're all overseas conglomerates have had the rest of the world to watch while we 'lag behind' or as I like to call it, wait for other folk to make all the mistakes

Electric vehicles can be charged at power draws comparable to various household appliances and you'll have probably noticed how efficient modern appliances are and continue to become. I don't foresee any glowing power lines or chaos, certainly some cost but Govco will cover a lot of that. If your only doing usual daily commute kms you don't need to fill her up everyday. A couple guys I work with have Model 3's and I'm finding myself tempted more and more, there are very few downsides. Cost practically nothing to run and maintain, with one of them owning the high output... 0-100 in 3.3 seconds

Like @Ginger Beer, I plan to help burn all the Dino juice until the day I die.... maybe a bit of meth and nitromethane too