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ZB Commodore Dead Man Walking

Discussion in 'ZB Holden Commodore (2018)' started by southerncross, Aug 1, 2019.

  1. kos

    kos Member

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    Maybe Buettners cunning plan is to buy on 2019 models while he still tries to flog off 2018 models.

    Then he can discount the 2019 models in 2020 as he ll be in oversupply.

    However Commie seems to be selling steadily at 500 a months. But who is buying them. I see a lot on the Gc but they are mainly rentals.
    Anybody in the know what part of the market is buying 500 Commies a month?
     
  2. commodore665

    commodore665 expat Saffa

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    possibly fleet buyers , perhaps people are warming up to them also .
     
  3. Anthony121

    Anthony121 Well-Known Member

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    No Cars would sit overseas as they are shipped as soon as they are built. Not many 2019 but they are here :)
     
  4. Pablito

    Pablito Active Member

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    Holden said themselves last year they had a ZB stockpile overseas..........
    You're still not saying how you know for sure there are 2019 ones.
     
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  5. Anthony121

    Anthony121 Well-Known Member

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    Did Holden say that or thew media speculating?
     
  6. Pablito

    Pablito Active Member

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    All I know for sure is when I was talking to the salesman at my local he said my only options were he could get me a 2018 model straight away or he'd have to call around and try to find a 2019 complied one from somewhere. A 2019 built one wasn't a choice.
    So that's why I think there aren't any 2019 built ones. Unless like someone else said, they want to sell the pre October 18 ones first.
     
  7. Calaber

    Calaber Nil Bastardo Carborundum

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    IIRC, the compliance plate isn't attached to the vehicle until its landed and cleared customs in Oz. Even 2019 compliance vehicles are likely to be 2018 build. Any sales from the backlog would be taken from the oldest stock on hand, unless specific options meant that more recently produced cars had to be taken ahead of older vehicles.
    As an example, we know that diesels have been slow sellers and are being dropped. Imagine how old an unsold diesel might be. The ZB was in production before VF2 production ceased. Allowing for advance orders, manufacture, shipping and delivery delays, any very early ZB diesels still unsold could well be late 2017 builds, older than the last VF's.
     
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2019
  8. Anthony121

    Anthony121 Well-Known Member

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    The ZB went on sale in February 2018. Some cars were here in the months prior for media release but there weren't too many being built while the VF was still being manufactured. Holden stockpiled the VF to get them through until the ZB arrived in February. It usually takes 6 weeks to sail from Europe to Australia in a RO/RO vessel.
     
  9. Calaber

    Calaber Nil Bastardo Carborundum

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    You're correct in what you say but Holden would have had to order cars in sufficient time to have them available across the country by the February release date. To fit in with the plants' production schedules, allow for transit times from Europe to Oz, be compliance, then distributed, those early vehicles would have all been 2017 build. If diesels are very slow sellers, it's quite possible that the oldest unsold diesels still in yards are actually mid to late 2017 builds.
     
  10. Anthony121

    Anthony121 Well-Known Member

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    I did mention 6 week transit times so the vehicles probably started around mid December 2017. I don't think there was a shitload produced before 2018. This excludes the cars that were here for pre launch.
     
  11. Calaber

    Calaber Nil Bastardo Carborundum

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    Nup, larger numbers would have been produced definitely pre mid 12/17. The release date was only 6 weeks into 2018. Your 6 week transit time only covers the time between the end of 2017 and release date. The vehicles would not have started production in December as there needed to be adequate stock on hand, distributed through Australia and ready for sale by release date. I think 6 weeks for transit, 3 to 4 weeks for landing, certification, allocation and national distribution is more likely. Production would shut down over Christmas for 2 to 3 weeks. Holden specs were different to other markets, particularly the V6 models, and they had to be programmed into the production schedule alongside Opel and Vauxhall model's. I doubt they ran production lines dedicated to each brand, so Holdens needs had to be carried out according to all brand requirements, not just theirs. This would mean a lower and longer production rate. I think I'll stick with my timetable.
     
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  12. Pablito

    Pablito Active Member

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    Either way, they're old as fark
     
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  13. Anthony121

    Anthony121 Well-Known Member

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    Do you know transport logistics? A car can come into any port of Australia abc be in a dealer within a week. The cars would of been ordered earlier than the build dates and allocation would of already been done. Once the BOM has been set for a type of vehicle model. It is easy for the production of a car and loaded on a ship within two weeks.
     
  14. Calaber

    Calaber Nil Bastardo Carborundum

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    My knowledge of transport logistics would fit into a bottle cap. Common sense, however, I have to spare. I'm thinking of the size of this country and the need to have vehicles available at dealers nationwide by the release date. Deliveries to major ports are fine, but how long do the cars sit on the docks before being loaded for road or rail transport? Your "6 weeks" is utopian and, I think, dismissive of various stages in the transport process. Anyway, you have your views, I have mine and I'm stuffed if I'm going to waste my time arguing with a stranger over a point of view.
     
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  15. tuckerbag

    tuckerbag Active Member

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    So in a nutshell there are zero zb things built in 2019
     
  16. Calaber

    Calaber Nil Bastardo Carborundum

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    Well, we don't know. How big is that backlog now? Sales are supposed to be around 500 per month nationally and the suspension order was issued early this year. How many cars were stockpiled at that time? 6 months at 500/month would see 3000 cars cleared. I think its likely that some 2019 build cars have landed and we know that a revised model is due for release within months. We also know that some variants will be dropped. The only easy way to know would be to check the new car compliance plates in dealerships.
     
  17. Anthony121

    Anthony121 Well-Known Member

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    I'm only making a point because I work in logistics. Goods don't actually take that long to move overseas to anywhere in the world these days including vehicles/Trucks/Machinery etc.
     
  18. Calaber

    Calaber Nil Bastardo Carborundum

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    I can appreciate your experience in an area where I have none. My experience was in management and planning. Logistics is a major element of any effective plan and allowances have to be made for the unforseen.

    My original point was that any unsold diesel ZB's could well date from mid to late 2017. Holden would not have known how the various models would sell and would probably have ordered quite a few hundred diesels when the initial orders were placed with the factory. The car was already in production, so Holden's orders had to be programmed in such a way as to minimise production delays on Opels and Vauxhalls.

    I therefore estimated that there would have been some months elapse between placement of initial orders and cars being on dealers forecourts by February 2018. Some of them were diesels and subsequent experience has shown that few buyers want a diesel Commodore. Depending on the number on hand on release date and the sales rate since, it's feasible that some unsold ZB diesel cars date from 2017.
     
  19. VS 5.0

    VS 5.0 Well-Known Member

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    All good until this happens....

     
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  20. Anthony121

    Anthony121 Well-Known Member

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    Or a cargo aircraft is out of balance and crashes killing all on board plus the freight.
     

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