Value of VFII Commodores & Gen-F2 in the future?

[EternityDre]

Hi Snow,
"The culture of gettting your license at 16 and some wheels is fading away."
Interesting. I don't think it's evident in regional NSW.
Where do you find data to support this and other asseřtions in your job?

I'm pretty sure he's talking about metro areas, I'm definitely seeing first hand less young people with cars in Melbourne

 

[426Cuda]

I'm pretty sure he's talking about metro areas, I'm definitely seeing first hand less young people with cars in Melbourne

Yeah. Obviously if the trend continues the public transport systems will sruggle even more during peak periods. More reason to leave the big smoke!

 

[Forg]

If you're talking about stuff like future values of something due to competition for limited resources, then what's important is the majority of people.
And don't over 80% of Australians live in the capitals?
If you're eating smashed avocados in preference to buying your first house, then you've probably got what you consider enough disposable income to be living somewhere that everything's within walking or public-transport distance.
A bit older though ... with kids, getting them to the places kids need to go etc, yeah a car's needed. Not necessarily wanted though ... going back to future supply:demand, without as many currently-young people having that interest in cars & them only being tools to be grudgingly bought ... blah blah youze know the drill.

 

[monstar]

My 19yo son and his 20 nearest Uni mates couldn't remotely give two shits about what (I know) and matters in personal transport or cars in general. Yep I'm an eccentric old kook obsessed with making noise and pollutants, too snobby to be free and enjoy the whole of life when you catch PT and drop the energy / transport control hangup basically.
Teen mindset is still rebellion but nothing like the hotrod Happy Days 50's car culture or Bathurst or F1 motorsport frenzy I was indoctrinated with at his age growing up in the 80s. Quite fascinating how his mates rock up in a $1600 280Z (Charlies Angels era) with zero electronics as sort of kitsch clockwork anachronism, like disco Stu vintage flares. Smart buying apparently

 

[crew_man]

Hi Snow,
"The culture of gettting your license at 16 and some wheels is fading away."
Interesting. I don't think it's evident in regional NSW.
Where do you find data to support this and other asseřtions in your job?

I'm sure that it isn't the case in regional areas, but the volume of cars being sold to millennials in regional areas is unlikely to sustain car makers profitability. The bulk of sales potential is located in urban areas, which is why they are targeting millennials in these areas.

I am a millennial and I live in the inner suburbs of Melbourne (not a hipster) - I personally love my car and motorbike and will be buying plenty in my lifetime, but I also know a huge amount of people that don't own cars, or if they are couples they have a shared car such as a 5-10 year old Mazda 2 that barely gets used.

As people move closer to the city, it gets increasingly hard to own a car as there is nowhere to park them and with the public transport and infrastructure available, there really is no reason to own a car.

 

[426Cuda]

If you're talking about stuff like future values of something due to competition for limited resources, then what's important is the majority of people.
And don't over 80% of Australians live in the capitals?
If you're eating smashed avocados in preference to buying your first house, then you've probably got what you consider enough disposable income to be living somewhere that everything's within walking or public-transport distance.
A bit older though ... with kids, getting them to the places kids need to go etc, yeah a car's needed. Not necessarily wanted though ... going back to future supply:demand, without as many currently-young people having that interest in cars & them only being tools to be grudgingly bought ... blah blah youze know the drill.

Not really sure what point/s you're making Forg? It's a small mkt segment. Not aimed at soccer Mum's. But, re the 80/20 metro v country stats though, I'd reckon a much higher proportion of sales in Country area's are V8's. Added bonus is we really get to enjoy them too. Not mainly idling along in traffic, staring at the avg fuel used readings. In future demand for used one's in regional areas will remain strong when compared to city areas, I think.
But, the bottom line for me is:
A) These cars are not an investment. I think they will depreciate at a slower rate. But they will depreciate. The rarer and more desireable ones may buck the trend;
B) I'm not bothered either way. It's value to me is in how much I enjoy it. Not what it's worth;
C) If you want to invest $70k, go for property or shares.

 

[SnowDoggyDogg]

Hi Snow,
"The culture of gettting your license at 16 and some wheels is fading away."
Interesting. I don't think it's evident in regional NSW.
Where do you find data to support this and other asseřtions in your job?

Hey Cuda,

Being a public servant (boo/hiss) we've got to use government datasets provided by the statisticians.

An excerpt from the ABS:


In 2012, people aged 55-64 years were the most likely to drive to work or full-time study (78%), while young people (aged 18-24 years) were the least likely age group (63%). Young people were the most likely to take public transport (28%) to work or study, compared with older age groups.

Differences in passenger vehicle use were also seen between men and women. Women were more likely to use a passenger vehicle to get to work or study compared with men (74% compared with 69% respectively). They were also more likely to take public transport (19% compared with 13%). However, men were more likely than women to drive other types of vehicles such as a ute, panel van, truck or motorbike to work or study (11% for men compared with 1% for women).

Note that the data is aggregated around census years so 2012 result are divined by 2011 census. The 2016 census, although poorly done, will demonstrate this trend of a lack of private vehicle ownership amongst the younger generation is accelerating. Expect that data and narrative sometime this year.
I firmly believe that as the cost of private vehicle ownership is second only to the cost of housing (rent or bank rent.... err, I mean mortgage) that the increased cost of housing beyond inflation of wages (which are stagnant) has resulted in many young people foregoing car ownership as a discretionary expense against the cost of shelter. Sad but true.

ABS data from this link here:

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features40July+2013#use&ved=0ahUKEwiLp4rPtNzTAhVIKZQKHTS6Av8QygQIHDAA&usg=AFQjCNFBDb16Hv-0QFX02-9RHpLzHbKGHQ

 

[426Cuda]

I'm sure that it isn't the case in regional areas, but the volume of cars being sold to millennials in regional areas is unlikely to sustain car makers profitability. The bulk of sales potential is located in urban areas, which is why they are targeting millennials in these areas.

I am a millennial and I live in the inner suburbs of Melbourne (not a hipster) - I personally love my car and motorbike and will be buying plenty in my lifetime, but I also know a huge amount of people that don't own cars, or if they are couples they have a shared car such as a 5-10 year old Mazda 2 that barely gets used.

As people move closer to the city, it gets increasingly hard to own a car as there is nowhere to park them and with the public transport and infrastructure available, there really is no reason to own a car.

Cheers. Yes, I agree, I wasn't implying the stats were wrong. I was genuinely interested in where the stats come from and what they show. I was simply making a point that in regional areas it doesn't appear that evident.

 

[crew_man]

Another thing to remember, is that the second hand car market is flooded with cars at the moment, especially second hand euro cars that were being leased and have depreciated immensely, making them very attractive buys.

While modern cars from volume manufacturers such as Holden, Mazda, Kia, Hyundai etc. are infinitely better than they used to be, better value can still be had by buying second hand - especially if it means that you can have a more 'prestigious' euro brand for not much more money.

Manufacturers need to start offering more than just cars if they want to attract new customers, especially millennials.
They need to start offering a 'lifestyle' and leveraging their sponsorship agreements in a way that offers customers an incentive to buy brand new from that brand because it gives them access to things that buying another brand or second hand wouldn't offer them - such as priority ticketing or free tickets to events, discounts at their partners etc. (similar to what telco's, credit cards and loyalty cards offer, but more tangible).

 

[monstar]

If you're talking about stuff like future values of something due to competition for limited resources, then what's important is the majority of people.
And don't over 80% of Australians live in the capitals?
If you're eating smashed avocados in preference to buying your first house, then you've probably got what you consider enough disposable income to be living somewhere that everything's within walking or public-transport distance.
A bit older though ... with kids, getting them to the places kids need to go etc, yeah a car's needed. Not necessarily wanted though ... going back to future supply:demand, without as many currently-young people having that interest in cars & them only being tools to be grudgingly bought ... blah blah youze know the drill.

Too easy to buy into a car, and I agree with the changes afoot in energy / public transport it's pretty dumb for everyone to jump in and do that. Same as it is too easy to screw your life and be shackled with "bank rent" and shit job.
Piss easy for late teens early 20s to get a (shit) first home buyer eligible house (read cheap arse new Chinese kit home packed tight on farm / swamp recently sold on outer suburb of whoop whoop). Boring cookie-cutter neighbourhoods with FA infrastructure (apart from ice dealers, a servo, Woolies and 7/11) and they only exist there to support lifestyle based around a mass commute to a centralised work precinct / job site far away. No functional village, no church (spiritual construct of any sort), no Rotary, Lions or Chamber of Commerce.
Smart money doesn't live in these estates, in the wake of GFC of last decade some youth realise (despite the mass incentives and brainwash) that a reliable new car (loan/lease) and the ubiquitous stake in the ground is evidently not always the ideal start to invest your early life.
It actually takes courage and foresight not to respond and actually rebel against life's targeted sales events, with virtually everyone around you indirectly vested in you buying into the land grab / new car economy. Thankfully youngsters have better access to comms, global / social info and even airfares vs the GFC decade prior.
Been singing this for more than half a century on the Gold Coast, now the lyric seems almost utopian vs the cheap, clearly fake soul-less sub-metro civilisation on offer to youth in 2017: