DPRK - North Korea, When will Trump be a chump and start a war?

[Calaber]

The risk of radioactive fallout carrying to either China or South Korea mitigates against the US using nukes. Unfortunately, that concern doesn't exist for NK. He could attack any US territory in the knowledge that no other neutral country would be endangered.

I think the US will be forced to use conventional warheads. First target should be the NK government.

 

[Fekason]

Here's my interpretation of the possible developments in order of likelihood:

1. The sabre rattling will go on for a while, but settle down after the upcoming US/ROK EX Ulchi-Freedom Guardian is over. This sabre rattling always occurs in the leadup to major US/ROK exercises. Maybe everyone is just getting carried away because new, and perhaps less predictable, leaders are in place.
2. If the US considers that DPRK is actually about to strike at either ROK (and I don't think that Kim is that stupid with China saying DPRK is on their own if they strike first), Japan or Guam, expect a pre-emptive strike by conventional warheads (cruise missiles) aimed at DPRK known launch sites. Followup attacks on DPRK nuclear facilities may occur with this scenario.
3. If DPRK does strike first, and their missiles actually arrive at the target (remembering that defences against ICBM's (i.e. long range missiles) are problematical at best), then all bets are off.

I would expect that the US has the fire power to neutralise DPRK offensive capability without using nuclear weapons, and therefore that outcome is extremely unlikely no matter what DPRK does.

 

[UnmedicatedLunatic]

China said they would back NK if USA started the war and back USA/SK if NK started the war - so I think Trump is trying to provoke NK into firing first. Simples.

 

[Immortality]

And that makes who the bigger mad man?

 

[Deuce]

And that makes who the bigger mad man?

Whom ever is tricked into throwing the first punch.

 

[Nitro_X]

China said they would back NK if USA started the war and back USA/SK if NK started the war - so I think Trump is trying to provoke NK into firing first. Simples.

yeah, nah..this is too simplified and doesn't take into account the underlying power dynamics going on today in geo-politics.

The last thing China wants is regime change in NK, which would be the eventual outcome if a war broke out with the US (and by default would include SK and Japan), especially if that regime change benefits the US/SK alliance that already exists.
The US has been planning this for years...it's dubbed their, 'pivot to Asia'.

In my opinion, as far as the Pentagon and Whitehouse are concerned, NK is just a smoke screen, a false flag operation, it's really all about attempting to destabilize the rising economic power of China.

US military bases in Asia (that were existing before all this US+media propaganda ramped up:

 

[Immortality]

^^^ As much as that may be the case, trying to get a tyrant like Kim to fire the first shot is lunacy when the idiot has access to nukes and may very well try to use them as a first strike option.

 

[Nitro_X]

Turnbull, Trump, Putin and other foreign national leaders have all been visiting Asia this month, the mainstream media mostly reports on trade deals and what not, but the real agenda behind the scenes at the moment is N. Korea and a potential war between NK and the US.
From what I've read, there is potential for war in the first half of 2018.

Kim Jong Un has been testing nuclear weapons under Mt. Mantap and one of the tunnels in these facilities collapsed on October 30, killing hundreds of workers, if he can't continue testing in under mountain facilities, he's threatened to test in the atmosphere, if he does, or looks like he will, the US won't hesitate to strike.

Apparently China has some kind of geographical 'red line' between it and N Korea, and Trump and Xi Jinping have been discussing these aspects so as things don't escalate to include war with China, The US wants regime change in NK, but China is unlikely to help in this regard, so the US will have to go it alone with the support of surrounding Asian nations, that's what's apparently been going on in discussions behind closed doors at the moment.

.

 

[Immortality]

I'd expect a diplomatic effort early in 2018, when that fails the gloves are off!

The big geo-political issue is that China does not want a US/Western associated foreign country next to it's border and hence NK creates a nice buffer between it and South Korea/US.

His latest threat is to do an atmospheric test over the Pacific (yes in our back yard). Strictly speaking there isn't much the US could do about it as they themselves have done plenty of testing in the Pacific in the 50's/60's. The unknown today would be all the aircraft and surface vessels which could be effected, if a couple of airliners drop out of the sky because the EMP blast from a nuke then that could set it all off too.

2018 could be a very interesting year.

 

[commodore665]

I'd expect a diplomatic effort early in 2018, when that fails the gloves are off!

The big geo-political issue is that China does not want a US/Western associated foreign country next to it's border and hence NK creates a nice buffer between it and South Korea/US.

His latest threat is to do an atmospheric test over the Pacific (yes in our back yard). Strictly speaking there isn't much the US could do about it as they themselves have done plenty of testing in the Pacific in the 50's/60's. The unknown today would be all the aircraft and surface vessels which could be effected, if a couple of airliners drop out of the sky because the EMP blast from a nuke then that could set it all off too.

2018 could be a very interesting year.

I think so too , one wonders if our new Government will supply support troops , if , and I really hope it doesn't , it kicks off in North Korea .