Crypto Currencies

[Reaper]

Ok - so with regular companies et-al there are many ways to value them based on inherent asset values, expected earnings from their trading and so forth. More or less the same with real estate via comparable land values of the area, rental returns and so forth. There are *many* opinions on what all this information actually means and how it should be valued but that is why you get volatility on an otherwise no-news day on the stock market however there is something of substance there.
So.... this is what I don't understand with Crypto. How the hell do you value it? It is not income producing like a company is as it doesn't actually make/sell anything. So other than hoping other peoples opinion of it's worth is going to be more into the future, how does one decide what is a good buy or not?

 

[JRNZER]

Not only Cryptos, the US Stock Market. What I see, where the Capital is flowing to? No stocks, no bonds, USDs are lukewarm. All Cryptos are tanking at about the same rate which I find strange. I want Cryptos to tank more, to scoop some from the bottom. I see Cryptos taking off like a rocket later. I went and bought some more. Do not wanto spend a fortune? Try Shiba Inu. Is 0.000008 couple of hundreds can get you a a couple of millions. All you need is wait for few decimals to go up. I did it with Dogecoin went it was at 0.0019, bought 100,000 Doge, made it like bandit when shot up to 10 cents.

This website has a global view too.

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http://[URL]https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

[/URL]

Here what is really moving. Mining Stocks. I invested on them way back in 2020. My Stocks are doing really good.


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I'll likely throw some cash on a crypto when the markets eventually settle, Not sure which one though.
Just had a look and bitcoin is below 24,000, Bet loads of people are shitting the bed.

I've invested in mining too, But the last few weeks haven't been great thanks to Goldman sacks

 

[wetwork65]

Ok - so with regular companies et-al there are many ways to value them based on inherent asset values, expected earnings from their trading and so forth. More or less the same with real estate via comparable land values of the area, rental returns and so forth. There are *many* opinions on what all this information actually means and how it should be valued but that is why you get volatility on an otherwise no-news day on the stock market however there is something of substance there.
So.... this is what I don't understand with Crypto. How the hell do you value it? It is not income producing like a company is as it doesn't actually make/sell anything. So other than hoping other peoples opinion of it's worth is going to be more into the future, how does one decide what is a good buy or not?

It's really easy apparently.
It depends on finding a buyer for a valueless item via an anonymous broker. And you need to know the terminology.
Oops one of main exchanges is not working anymore.

 

[Skydrol]

No telling. The markets, including Cryptos, are manipulated. What we have is a Frankenstein economy. Some stuff will go up in value like never seen before, some will hit rock bottom like never seen before. What will do that? I have no clear idea, but if I have to guess, is the stuff that have some use in the real world will go up in value. Some like Food up, Telly down. Stocks down, Silver Coin up. Motrcycle and Econo cars up, Merc Luxury models down. Some like that happen in the US depression in the late 1920s.

 

[Skydrol]

So.... this is what I don't understand with Crypto. How the hell do you value it?

Some percieve its value by the energy consumed/used. For example, the USD is worthless, used to be backed by a commodity. In 1971 was removed from it. What gives the USD its real value is the people's confidence that someone values it as much as they do. If I go down to AU and slapped my USD at the pup, I bet someone will take it. However, if I do it with a Colón (Costa Rica), people will hesitate.

The USD we call them Bills, why? Because it was Bill, a Claim Check, a Coupon for Gold. We traded a comodity with a check that was easier to carry arround. Clearing Houses did that in the late 1800s during the Gold Rush.

What I hear on some Crypto Circles are Cryptos backed by Au or Ag. That I see it as a mean to give confidence on the token.

There are other Cryptos out there pegged to the USDs, so their value is 1 to 1 exchange, therefore is as valuable as an USD.

What Russia is doing now is increasing demand of the Rubble. Other nations had to buy US Debt (Bonds) to buy USDs. The US pawned off the debt using the USD Currency Reserve Status. Also, a lot of nations seek the USD because it does not reevaluted like the Europeans did with their currencies. Those USDs will be coming back to the US, and such currency surplus will decrease its value Venezuela style.

However, there is a huge limitation on Cryptos, and that is that they are Tech Dependant. As long we can keep the lights on, and have a functional Internet, Cryptos will work. Power is out... too sad, so bad.

 

[Skydrol]

Looks like people are cashing out into Currencies; moving to USDs, Euros and Pounds.

 

[Reaper]

All of that is nice but I'm not a currency trader either. Aside from buying various equities in various currencies because that is what the respective exchange uses, I just don't go down that path. The one thing you could say for some of the mainstream currencies you mentioned is they are tied to countries who often have their strengths & weaknesses that form a loose basis for valuation.

So, that leaves my question still un-answered. How do I go about putting together a valuation for *Insert coin here* that has some sort of rational basis more substantial than "I think other people will think it's worth more sometime into the future"?

Some percieve its value by the energy consumed/used. For example, the USD is worthless, used to be backed by a commodity. In 1971 was removed from it. What gives the USD its real value is the people's confidence that someone values it as much as they do. If I go down to AU and slapped my USD at the pup, I bet someone will take it. However, if I do it with a Colón (Costa Rica), people will hesitate.

The USD we call them Bills, why? Because it was Bill, a Claim Check, a Coupon for Gold. We traded a comodity with a check that was easier to carry arround. Clearing Houses did that in the late 1800s during the Gold Rush.

What I hear on some Crypto Circles are Cryptos backed by Au or Ag. That I see it as a mean to give confidence on the token.

There are other Cryptos out there pegged to the USDs, so their value is 1 to 1 exchange, therefore is as valuable as an USD.

What Russia is doing now is increasing demand of the Rubble. Other nations had to buy US Debt (Bonds) to buy USDs. The US pawned off the debt using the USD Currency Reserve Status. Also, a lot of nations seek the USD because it does not reevaluted like the Europeans did with their currencies. Those USDs will be coming back to the US, and such currency surplus will decrease its value Venezuela style.

However, there is a huge limitation on Cryptos, and that is that they are Tech Dependant. As long we can keep the lights on, and have a functional Internet, Cryptos will work. Power is out... too sad, so bad.

 

[Skydrol]

So, that leaves my question still un-answered. How do I go about putting together a valuation for *Insert coin here* that has some sort of rational basis more substantial than "I think other people will think it's worth more sometime into the future"?

I say let the economy and people decide. Governments always try to control the economy, it has a life on its own. We all can go through the rabbit hole of theories, is all academia. Each time the Govs try to control the economy, always end in disaster. We are at the point in time that will prove that Keynesian Economics is flawed, and is taught in all Universities. On top of that, we have the Banking sector scheming on how to skim proffits from currency markets.

Will be rough time ahead, in the same way the mechanism of price discovery works. A back and forth until it settles. Some Cryptos will ween itself out, some will stay, some might be use as Business Credits.

There is a place in Texas, Austin to be precised. People trade with Wooden Tokens. The reason behind is Tax Avoidance. You take USDs, trade it for tokens and buy stuff with them. The merchant trade the tokes for USDs There is nothing illegal on the matter. There is no law that forbid the trade of Apples for Apples, or Apples for Oranges, or a set of headders for an intake manifold.

The sector that fear Cryptos the most is the banking sector. Bankers love Cryptos too, the ones they can control.

 

[PaulMcGTS]

Is anybody watching Bitcoin and/or Crypto Currencies in general? In my opinion, this is another bubble that is going to pop. What is your opinion?

I would love to know what it was at when you posted this because it didn't pop but expanded big time. It's since taken on a more standard rise and fall behaviour.

 

[PaulMcGTS]

An Auckland man sold his house and spent all the proceeds on trying to make his fortune through virtual currencies.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11955965

Yeah, Yeah...I know just a tad late for a comment. But seeing as I'm in the future, know that he had the goolies to do something like that and was right. I bet he made a small fortune and may even still be crunching out the conformations.