As a former Territorian with extensive experience living and dealing with our indigenous friends (including a 17 year stint in the heart of Arnhemland), I think Gillard has shot herself in the foot here. Regardless of who she has dumped, she has chosen the wrong replacement if its indigenous votes she is wooing.
Firstly, the indigenous population are only about 20% of the Territory's population anyway, so even if every one of those eligible to vote does so for her, its not going to get her over the line.
Secondly, many simply won't be voting or anywhere near somewhere they can vote.
Thirdly and most importantly, its an erroneous assumption that they will automatically vote for someone because of their indigenous heritage. Unless Nova Peris is out in the communities pressing flesh and kissing babies, they wont be any more likely to vote for her than anyone else.
In fact, because Nova has an Irish father, her mixed genes cause her to be called 'yella fella' among the full bloods, and her status socially is not dissimilar to the South African kaffirs.. not fully accepted among either the white or black community. She may even find her 'aboriginality' to be a hindrance rather than a help when it comes to gaining indigenous votes.
She is actually more likely to get votes from the white community due to her sporting career than she is to get votes from the black community due to her colour.