The reason we have 'Holden' brand is that after WW2 we had a lot of manufacturing infrastructure that could be used - folks like Chifley and Harnett had a vision and voila - Holden. Seeing 50% market share for medium-large 6cyl cars, Ford and Chrysler got in on the act.
Our 'car culture' based on muscle cars, Bathurst 1000 and V8s stems largely from the period 1967-72; this was the classic time when Aussie car scene was at its peak. This closely ties in with what happened in USA. Then you had....supercar scare.....Energy crisis....arrival of decent Japanese imports, and a burgeoning local manufacturing scene focused on Japanese makes....the traditional hot-rod orientated car scene was under threat. In the 70s you had XA-XB GT, V8 Toranas.....yeh it was still going ok. Then you had XC Cobra, A9X Torana and arguably with the 1979-80 energy crisis MkII, Valiant folding and Ford basically giving up muscle car aspirations and set out to run a profitable business. Via Brock, GMH outsourced its special vehicle division. Now Brock and Holden had a great realtionship around this time but from '85 onwards Brock stopped winning enmasse. In '87 the business model went bad as Brock went down the energy polariser path.
By now you had Group A touring Cars, and the V8 Commodore was more or less outclassed until everything that was better than a V8 was banned after '92. I would argue that any V8 Holden vehicle developed from the late 80s onwards was focused on a niche, enthusiast set that has strong aspirations of nostalgia.
Yep - Group A Commodores were out classed by design via rules which actively discriminated against them. We had a car which was putting out around 480hp kneecapped back to around 400hp and 1300kgs (from memory) vs pretty much any hp they liked in the sierra as turbos were free (yet camshafts on NA motors which were homologated to road specs) and only 1100kgs. Yep - hopelessly outclassed by design of the rule makers.
Fast forward to the early 90's and the V8 2 make series came about because without it, channel 7 was out and cams would have been broke with no professional racing in Australia. As a road car, the V8 power has steadily grown as proportion of Commodores sold to the highest in their history over the last few years. Niche? Probably - but same same with near every other auto segment in Australia.
For so long GMH had been a one trick pony; one model line for its first 19 years, 6 with two then 5 with three. During the 80s GMH didn't know what they were doing. Camira, Piazza, Scurry, Drover, Astra, Barina - no wonder Holden nearly went broke! Just as well here was a nice veil of economic tariffs to protect Holden as a company from other car companies who knew what they were doing.
Most of the problem here was the GM part of GMH - as usual - Detroit knows best and well we all know what happened. "Globalization" via the V car platform with no large car option was a mistake. In hindsight, the V car should have replaced the Torana and a modern version of the good old Kingswood to keep the large car segment alive. Camira was actually a very good driving car compared to it's peers of the day however it was terminally let down by horrendous quality and poor engineering decisions with the motor (soft piston rings for a start). As for the rest, the Piazza, Scurry, Barina and Drover were all imports so tarrifs were applicable to each of those models.
Oh no, wait - the Button Plan from '83 sought to reduce tariffs, and rationalise the car industry. No other country of 15 million people (at the time) had two (or 3 counting the Magna) models lines developed especially for them, with very limited export potential.
In essence he was right.
Fast forward to the 90s, Ford and Holden plants are being wound up one by one as market share drops. Toyota is doing well. Nissan closes up in '94. By '95 all you have left being assembled is Commodore, Falcon, Camry, Magna, and the Corolla. Fuel is cheap, the new V8 Supercar series gives Ford and Holden new marketing potential but....its not the same. There are muscle cars (HSV and Tickford) but they are now priced as high-end luxury cars. Not really Muscle. In '99 Corolla winds up, as a new platform (vastly improved mind you) is launched from Toyota City in Japan (what have satellite plants when you can consolidate?).
HSV's have always attracted a premium over their donor Commodore but to catagorise them as costing the same as 'high-end luxury' is wrong. Compared to anything vageuly the same performance from BMW, Mercedes, Audi or the like as a 4 door sedan is going to cost you multiples of the HSV/FPV/Tickford price.
Meanwhile going into the 2000s, small cars are getting better and better in terms of space and performance. Tariffs are falling, so they are getting cheaper. The SUV segment becomes a force to be reckoned with. Now Ford gets in on the act with the Territory, but it can't really compete with SUV expert brands like Nissan and Toyota. In from 2002-2008 fuel prices accelerate out of control, killing off demand for big cars. Mitsubishi dies in 2008 due to poor sales. The VE launched in 2006 is the right car, at precisely the wrong time. Changes to V8 supercar rules effectively make it a mockery as cars deviate wildly from basic structure of a regular Falcon/Commodore. Then the GFC hits - people buy cheaper cars (smaller cars) or don't buy new cars at all. Whilst this is going on, fleets are fleeing large cars in favour of...yes, small SUVs and small cars.
In the case of Holden, Peter Hanneneneneneneneenenenenburger set up an export office around about 2000. By 2005 it was going gang busters selling to the middle east and their little plant in SA was making a bomb but then GM noticed. They decided they could do it better, sent Peter H into early retirement and we got Denny Moony who sacked all the 'expensive' international trade guru's and thought interns over in Detroit could do the same job. Sales fell off a cliff. Shortly afterwards we got the GFC and even during all of this, Elizabeth as a plant was still profitable. Has been right up to and including 2015/2016FY (excluding abnormal redundancies and shutdown costs).
While this is going on, internet, multiculturalism, feminism and general globalisation is unseating the white aussie male as the centre of the Australian economy. Women are having an equal (or more?) say in buying cars, which means either a small car or small SUV is more likely to be on the menu. People identify more with an international and/or cosmopolitan lifestyle of sophistication and luxury - this is not conducive to getting people to buy a V8 Commodore ute. Holden uses some of its spare assembly capacity to build the Cruze bit it can't compete with the Corolla in a crowded marketplace. In the end, Holden decides that it would be more profitable to just import cars rather than build them here.
Basically.....its not 1967 any more, and the world and society has changed. If enough people wanted big 6/8 cyl cars, I am sure Holden and Ford would build them. But this is not the case. Humanity in general has turned its back on the 'bogan', with GMH doing what it can to stem the red ink. Its business model was ultimately reliant on a shrinking market segment.
Yet Ford, Chrysler, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Lexus still sell V8's quite successfully into Australia and around the world.
Now local manufacturing has been a core part of Holden's identity. Without it....Holden is now an empty shell. It may well be the case that GM is pulling out of all RHD markets. They wouldn't sell anything in Japan, not much in India and UK brand of Vauxhall is now gone to PSA.
That being said - I wouldn't be surprised if Holden is replaced by Opel (or Vauxhall) - it just won't be owned by GM.
On this point we agree - Holden in Australia is fuked. GM have made it abundantly clear they have zero interest in anything RHD and outside of American markets, I'm struggling to think of anywhere which is even moderately successful. In fairness the Colorado is very under-rated. I have looked at pretty much the entire range closely and I see nothing better in the Ranger to justify the higher price Ford ask and the Hilux is under done with regard to both content and load/towing capacity.
OTOH - Ford seems to be going fine, globally. They have a good range of cars that can be suited to RHD markets. Massively popular in the UK.
Well they are better than GM but I'm not sure 'going fine' is how I'd describe them. Mark Fields (Ford CEO) was sacked only a month or so ago. I won't go thru all the reasons but lets just agree that such high profile sackings don't happen without reason.
Some good, sensible, historical comments made in the last few posts.
Unfortunately, a lot of people still believe that Joe Hockey and Tony Abbot forced GM to shut Holden down within 24 hours of their ‘parlimentary baiting’.
But then, a lot of people still believe in Area 51 aliens, the power of pyramids, and that Elvis, JFK, and Harold Holt are alive and well somewhere in Russia..
Decision was made, just not public yet. I'm sure Hockey and Abbot both knew.
It was probably the straw that broke the camels back - the deal breaker that forced them to announce. But before the final 'baiting' for lack of better term....I think the decision was well and truly made. Apparently senior staff were told the week before. Large corporations do not act on a kneejerk. For the previous 5-10 years the trajectory certainly wasn't positive. But if you look at it historically, we only ever had a solid auto industry in light of stiff tariffs.
Decision was made years earlier, exact timing wasn't finalised however thus the spin on "no final decision has been made to close Holden" from GM. At best it may have pushed GM to make the announcement but zero influence on the actual outcome.
With GM pulling out of RHD markets like UK, Japan, India and Sth Africa it would seem that the plan long term was always going to wind up the Australian operation. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Holden brand beyond 2017. My money says PSA will buy the Holden name, shut it down, and import Vauxhall/Opel Product (like Corsa, Astra and the Opel-based Commodore). Until the govt permits importation of new LHD product, that may well be the end of GM in Australia.
It's an outside chance that GM will sell the Holden trademark or for that matter somebody buy it but not beyond the realms of possibility. Probably Holden's best chance TBH. I can't see govco allowing LHD new product to be on our roads any time soon.
