Batteries are currently made by LG Chem, CATL, BYD, Panasonic and Tesla (in order of GWhr capacity manufactured). Increased production capacity is being planned which should drive down costs but this seems to be countered by increasing raw material price which drive up cost.
Who knows where and how things will settle but within these battery businesses there will be a fight between volume, production cost (increasing raw material costs already a faster) and margin. Not everyone will do well but if production can’t meet vehicle makers needs, battery prices will go up while margins will go down. Depending on contracts, some battery makers may struggle as not everyone will do well... EV makers could see an already expensive product get pricier. And this doesn’t consider a change in battery tech...
As is, agreements already exists and BMW, who like Toyota, are aligned with CATL and Panasonic. So car makers would be competing with other car makers for batteries, unless they make their own like Tesla... Pay others for the privilege of securing volume isn’t a great strategy and from a layman’s perspective I’d guess it would be better to be Tesla who already has factories producing batteries and likely planning more. Tesla have vehicle production plants in USA, China and one being built in Germany (no5 to mention a solar roof tile plan in the states).
Tesla are in control of the most expensive component within the EV which must give them a competitive advantage.
Meanwhile others like BMW may be at the mercy of their battery suppliers... For BMW to cross subsidise their expensive EV’s using their ICE vehicles may not work well as customers and governments are funny creatures. Once these customers wake up to the fact they are subsidising EVs by paying a higher price for their ICE vehicle, it may be like a new dawn. The next thing to occur could be the wheels may fall off such cross subsidy mechanism very quickly as people stop buying ICE and buy EVs instead. Such may be shooting ones self in the foot moment...
Other countries governments (ours just don’t care) may also see such cross subsidies as anti competitive in the EV area and akin to dumping which laws prohibit so tariffs will follow to counter that behaviour.
Whatever the case, Tesla is going gangbusters and will still be a force going forward... how can they not with battery plants and car factories being built everywhere.
Oh, and as driverless tech takes hold, performance won’t matter any more and instead i5 will become comfort so Merican chassis experts will come into their own